Venezuela faces new turmoil

CARACAS-A coup attempt collapsed after two days. A national work stoppage disintegrated after two months.

Now, Venezuela's political opposition is trying to oust President Hugo Chavez in a more conventional way: legally.

Using an article of the constitution that allows for a recall referendum of elected officials after they've served half their terms - a milestone Chavez will pass on Tuesday - opposition leaders are launching their latest campaign to remove the populist president from office.

With the economy in a continuing slump and the government widely seen as corrupt and inefficient, Chavez' approval rating has dipped to as low as 30 per cent in some recent polls.

If all goes as planned, the opposition says, Venezuelans will be voting to sack Chavez in November and choosing a new president in December.

"Chavez is trapped in his own constitution," says Carolina Jaimes Branger, an opposition member and newspaper columnist. The constitution, passed during Chavez' first year in office in 1999, is closely identified with his presidency.

"He'll do the impossible to avoid the referendum, but in the end he'll have to accept it."

Since the failed coup of April, 2002, Chavez has purged the military of opponents. The work stoppage allowed him to secure control of the state oil company and fire more than 18,000 striking employees.

Chavez also firmed up support among his largely poor supporters by pushing through some key social programs in recent months. And analysts say the president may be able to throw any number of procedural and legal roadblocks in the way of a referendum.

"In terms of public opinion, Chavez has seen better days, but in terms of power, he's stronger than ever," says Alberto Garrido, a political writer critical of both Chavez and the opposition.

Bogged down by partisan squabbling and stalling, the National Assembly, Venezuela's 165-member unicameral parliament, was unable to select members of the National Electoral Commission (CNE) by the Thursday deadline set by the supreme court.

Now, the court is preparing to step in and appoint CNE members by next Sunday, a self-imposed deadline.

Government officials have delivered mixed opinions on the issue, but some pro-Chavez legislators say they will refuse to recognize an electoral body designated by the court.

The court was formed with Chavez in power, but it has shown independence from the executive, even deciding to release some of the military officers behind the 2002 coup.

First, the CNE will have to approve the 2.8 million signatures of pro-referendum citizens necessary to convoke the referendum. Chavez supporters have questioned the legitimacy of the signatures.

If the referendum is held, the opposition will need 3,757,774 people - one more than voted for Chavez in 2000 - to vote in favour of the recall.

Constitutional experts disagree as to whether Chavez will be prohibited from running for president again if he loses the referendum.

Prospects for opposition forces rallying behind a single candidate to face off against Chavez are slim, analysts say.

The opposition is backed by the large part of Venezuela's middle and upper classes, but it is led by an amalgam of union and business leaders, discredited political parties and a virulently anti-Chavez commercial media united only in the desire to see the president removed from office.

"The opposition's strength is Chavez himself," says Jaimes Branger. "There are too many personal interests and agendas, which until now have made a single line of action and ideas impossible."

Also working in favour of the opposition is Venezuela's moribund economy, which is expected to contract a record 10 per cent this year.

With unemployment currently at 18.4 per cent, Chavez supporters blame the crippling consequences of the two-month oil industry strike and business owners' lockout.

But the opposition says the nation's economic malaise began long before, when investors were scared away by Chavez' revolutionary rhetoric and policies that favour greater government intervention in the market.

Chavez's backing has waned as a result of the faltering economy, especially among the poor, traditionally a bastion of support for the president. But his base of support, albeit reduced, appears as resilient as ever, reflected in the chorus at pro-government marches: "With hunger and unemployment, I will stick with Chavez until the end."

In recent months, the government launched two key social programs for the poor, including a nationwide literacy campaign and a plan under which hundreds of Cuban doctors provide free health care in Caracas' hillside slums.

Chavez also approved a measure to grant land titles to hundreds of thousands of families who squatted decades ago but were long ignored by authorities.

Meanwhile, a government policy of implementing sweeping social change through active participation of the citizenry, an idea that lies at the heart of Chavez' political beliefs and is prominent in the constitution, appears to finally be showing some results.

"Chavez is consolidating his strength among the poor," says Eleazar Diaz Rangel, a columnist for Ultimas Noticias, the only major newspaper in Caracas that is not anti-Chavez. "Everything he has done lately has been directed at these sectors."

Elka Oropeza, a plump 30-year-old single mother, says she has noticed the difference. When the 2002 coup was in progress, Oropeza was among tens of thousands of people who descended from Caracas' barrios in protest. The largely spontaneous demonstrations were a crucial factor in Chavez' unexpected return to power in less than 48 hours.

Once a mere observer of Venezuela's political turmoil, Oropeza now is an assiduous community leader and a fierce defender of the president. "Before Chavez, the only thing I had ever done was vote," says Oropeza, who attends weekly "citizen assemblies" of civic-minded neighbours and is helping organize the government-sponsored literacy campaign.

"Now, we feel that he's giving us the power to choose what we want in our communities."

But experiences such as these are virtually unknown among middle- and upper-class Venezuelans, many of whom continue to see Chavez as authoritarian and incompetent.

"I don't like his political ideas, his way of thinking, his way of talking," says Carolina, 28, who prefers not to give her full name for fear Chavez supporters would target her.

Such fears are common among many middle-income Venezuelans, some of whom have formed self-defence groups to stave off imagined pro-Chavez "hordes" or "terrorist circles."

Carolina says she lost her job as a bank clerk during the work stoppage in January. Now, she sells candy and rents out a phone at a kiosk in a trendy shopping mall in eastern Caracas, the city's wealthy flank.

"Whether he goes by the referendum, or some other way, he's got to go," she says.

With the drive for the recall referendum gearing up, the campaign for Chavez' ouster is heating up on the street.

Opposition leaders are scheduling massive demonstrations for next Wednesday, at which time they intend to hand over the pro-referendum signatures to the CNE.

With pro-government marches to commemorate the three-year anniversary of the Chavez administration also planned throughout the week, many Venezuelans are bracing for a new conflagration after six months of relative calm.

"Chavez is buying time," says Garrido. "With or without the referendum, all this will end in confrontation."

Enrique Palacios of Sumate demonstrates examples of a petition demanding a recall vote on the rule of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in Caracas, Venezuela, Saturday, Aug. 16, 2003. Sumate, the institution responsible for collecting the signatures, plans to present the 2.7 million voter signatures to the National Electoral Council on Aug. 20. Such a vote is allowed after the Aug. 19 midpoint of Chavez's six-year term. The original petitions are in an undisclosed location for security reasons. (AP Photo/Leslie Mazoch)

Hugo Chavez - Venezuela

Fidel Castro - Cuba

Chavez Takes Talk Show to Argentina - "Populist" with 30% Approvial Rating***BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - Venezuela's Hugo Chavez took his weekly TV talk show to Argentina on Sunday, extolling his leftist revolution as he sang tango lyrics and sidestepped mention of opposition moves for a recall referendum at home. The populist president, who typically speaks six hours at a stretch when broadcasting at home, squeezed his political patter into a two-hour transmission seen live here and in Venezuela. The Venezuelan leader, who was festive as he watched tango dancers and talked of Argentina's mouthwatering beef, had no comment on rivals at home mounting a petition drive against him.***

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