The California GOP is doing everything it can to replace an ultra-unpopular Demcratic governor with a liberal Hispanic Democratic Lt. Governor. That way it will be even harder to defeat the Democrats in 2006.
All of Darrel Issa's money and the time of hundreds of volunteers to re-call Gray Davis could go to strengthen the Democratic Party's hold on California and beat the dead horse of California's Republican Party.
You are, of course, dead on. The GOP is once again dividing its forces. All Bustamante has to do is remain where he is.
Now, as mentioned above, we don't know what the turnout model is for this race-it's completely unprecedented. I suspect that they are using the 2000 model because its turnout was higher than 2002. Anyway, that's just a guess on my part.
If Arnold starts going to the public and campaigning, as in real deal campaigning, and starts getting traction, then it will be time for Simon, McClintock, and Ueberroth to bail. Arnold will start picking up Republicans who want their vote to "count". It's just like Simon to blow a gasket when asked to retire from the field, btw. The guy is a doofus.
Be Seeing You,
Chris