TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORMS IN GULF OF MEXICO

National Hurricane Center (through weatherunderground.com) ^ | August 14, 2003 | Lixion Avila

[John H K]

Tropical Storm Erika Advisory Number 1

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 14, 2003

...Erika...the fifth tropical storm of the season forms in the Gulf of Mexico...

Tropical Storm Erika could threaten southern Texas or northeastern Mexico within the next 36 to 48 hours. Watches or warnings will likely be issued tonight or early Friday. Consult statements issued by local government and National Weather Service offices for recommended actions in your area.

Reports from a reconnaissance plane and satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico has become Tropical Storm Erika...the fifth tropical storm of the season.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 26.2 north...longitude 84.4 west or about 350 miles ...565 km southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km to the north of the center. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely to affect oil rigs near and to the north of Erika.

Minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...26.2 N... 84.4 W. Movement toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[GatekeeperBookman]

A strike or landfall some 1-200 miles North ( of where it hit in N. Mexico ) would have killed perhaps tens of thousands-maybe many times more. This would have been the largest natural disaster in our history.
FEEMA was making a very hard push with all the men & equipment they could muster, in a desperate run from all over the nation.

You joke about things which are no joking matter. This storm had SUSTAINED winds over 250 MPH-the highest ever recorded in a hurricane, I beleive. That would equal the expected wind in a tornado, perhaps. Spread over tens of thousands of square miles. Central in such a storm, with extremly low air pressure, would have been a dome of high water, perhaps 20 feet above sea level. At landfall, storm tide is refered to as as strom surge. This one would have traveled inland for some miles. I am sure it did in Mexico. It would have, by landfall, been large enough to cover most of the Southern tip of Texas-had it turned in that direction.

Take a look at Brownsville, Harlingen & what is known as the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas-it is filled with hundreds of thousands of illegals, camped with no real housing. Corpus Christi has a population of over 250,000. It could have aslo run up the ?Texas coast-as have lesser stroms. The death toll there could have been beyond our comprehension.

The strike in a relatively unpopulated region was a life-saving factor-of huge proportions.

[admiralsn]

Well I am sick of all these white names! I'm with the "honorable" Shiela Jesse Jackson Lee- name some of these suckers with some ethnic names. How about Ethanasia???

[BushCountry]

[blam]

Thanks for the map. I can see my house in there.

[My Favorite Headache]

The tail of this thing whacked us here this afternoon. We got 3 inches of rain in 2 hours. Winds around 35 mph. It was nasty.

[BushCountry]

It is growing and picking up steam fast. The pictures I seen an hour ago show disorganization. It will form a eye soon it looks like.

[RikaStrom]

ROFLOL, I can believe that, I really can.

[BushCountry]

The picture is self updating, all you got to do is come back and see lastest update every half-hour.

[RikaStrom]

I was never that mean when I came back from vacation.

It looks like it's going to do some damange.

[Dog Gone]

Ideally, it would be tropical storm force, and hit Brownsville. The Rio Grande really needs some water flowing in it for a change.

This storm went from Tropical Wave to Tropical Storm without ever getting classified as a depression. That is a rapid build-up.

Definitely it deserves watching.

[NautiNurse]

Is this the storm that passed over us this morning?

Dang, the Farmer's Almanac was off by two days predicting a Tropical Storm in the Gulf. They had it in their Aug. 16-19 slot.

[sweet_diane]

BUMP for keeping an eye on.

[My Favorite Headache]

Mark my words...when this storm hits...it is going to devestate whatever it hits. This is going to be huge.

[Rocket1968]

I have three daughters, 20 17, and 14!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I know what you mean.

[grannie9]

We had just bought a condo in Cancun.. We weren't too pleased.. It was wiped out before it was completely furnished..

It was a real downer.. :(

First major hurricane in that area in 25 years.. Which was a bit more than when Cancun was much of anything but a fishing village.

I'll never forget Gilberto..or Keith about a month or so later..

[GatekeeperBookman]

I never forgot the tourists interviewed there who had been lied to by the mexican gov-what hurricane? Stay weeth us a leetle longer & enjoy our hotel! Then BOOM! Hell struck at 250 MPH. Trapped with their children, clinging to what was left of the upper floors of the concrete hotel. They were ANGRY. No come back to the leetle country of mayheeco!

[Ditter]

Issac's Storm was very factual. My grandfather survived the 1900 storm in Galveston & we grew up on storm stories. He died in the early 60's. The things he told us were exactly the same as the book.

[CindyDawg]

Actually the weather has been kind of strange here lately (Brownsville). It has been raining a lot this summer. We had a bad hail storm a few months ago and tornado warnings yesterday and today. Oh, and we were under a flood warning today too. Weird.

[GatekeeperBookman]

Some of my Mother's family actually heard Scott Joplin-Live!

[ErnBatavia]

Breaking.....Maxine Waters and Sheila Lee have just succeeded in getting this system named "Etiwanda".