Posted on 08/14/2003 6:25:40 AM PDT by RightOnTheLeftCoast
Bush's Terminator
Robert Novak
August 14, 2003
WASHINGTON -- Arnold Schwarzenegger's late decision to jump into the California recall election was made after weekend meetings to plan what was supposed to be a campaign for governor by Richard Riordan. The two men, non-conservatives and only nominal Republicans, are friends and political allies. But the multi-millionaire movie actor was disturbed by the demeanor of the multi-millionaire former mayor of Los Angeles.
As Schwarzenegger later related to associates, he was unpleasantly surprised by his old friend. In their private conversation, the 73-year-old Riordan duplicated his shaky performance in losing the 2002 Republican primary for governor. To Schwarzenegger, Riordan seemed so confused and disorganized he could not possibly be elected governor. That was the trigger to create the state's current uproarious scene, casting a long shadow on national politics.
Behind the pandemonium of candidates by the hundreds, the outlook for the Oct. 7 election is seen clearly within both political parties. Gov. Gray Davis, still railing against the recall, seems doomed as the first California governor removed in mid-term by the voters. The outcome then becomes a choice between two candidates, neither of which could win his own party's primary: self-styled "moderate" Republican Schwarzenegger and Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. The advantages of Hollywood's Terminator suggest an unanticipated windfall for George W. Bush.
It is no secret that President Bush's political advisers were cool to recalling Davis. They relished the thought of the universally disliked governor twisting in the wind throughout 2004, helping Bush win in a state that surely would smother Democratic presidential hopes. But that delicious prospect has disappeared. The question is: who will replace Davis?
Bustamante as governor would not be good news for Bush. As a Democrat in the governor's chair, he would inherit Davis's fiscal problems but not his personal baggage. Accordingly, the election of a Republican Oct. 7 suddenly becomes a Bush priority. Nobody gives 2002 nominee Bill Simon a prayer, and State Sen. Tom McClintock is a very dark horse. That is why, on the day after Schwarzenegger nudged aside Riordan to become a candidate, the president declared of the five-time Mr. Universe: "I think he'd make a good governor."
The identity of the only possible Democratic replacement for Davis would seem to indicate nobody at the wheel in either party. Bustamante is an overweight, uninspiring career politician who has been in the right place at the right time during a charmed career. He has ended up as the most visible if not the most magnetic representative of California's growing Hispanic population. More attractive Democratic hopefuls for governor stayed out, pressured by Davis's loyalists in organized labor (though the school teachers started pushing for an alternative Democrat on the ticket).
Bustamante broke the line set by the governor, Democratic Chairman Art Torres and the unions to save Davis by keeping credible Democrats off the ballot. He had decided to run even before Schwarzenegger's surprise announcement. But it seemed Bustamante's lifelong good fortune would continue and his principal opponent would be Dick Riordan, who long ago had left his best game behind him.
Schwarzenegger changed all that. Bustamante certainly will not win on charisma, but he has many advantages: the only substantial Democrat in the field, his Latin ethnicity, and perhaps most important, the title "lieutenant governor" on the ballot.
This rare opportunity for a little known political lifer to become governor depends, ironically, on ability of conservative Republicans to tear down Schwarzenegger as an untrue believer. Simon and McClintock have begun the assault, and the news media immediately began pressing the new candidate to detail his positions. Longtime Democratic hit man Bob Mulholland talked about shooting "real bullets" at Schwarzenegger (though State Chairman Torres said he cautioned him against "using that word again").
The Republican establishment in Washington clearly hopes the Terminator can deflect those bullets. Schwarzenegger's posture as a pro-business social liberal is similar to what former Gov. Pete Wilson advocated as the last Republican elected to high office in California (in 1994). No genuine conservative has been elected in California since Ronald Reagan in 1970. Arnold Schwarzenegger may not be much of a Republican and not conservative at all, but George W. Bush welcomes anybody invigorating a comatose California GOP.
I think this is Arnold's viewpoint. Spend on kids and education, but do so in a climate where tax money can be raised- in a healthy economy. I think Arnold will surprise his critics when the details of his plans come out.
The severe reduction of the military contractor/military base infrastructure in California, the only true shrinkage of federal spending, eliminated the heart of the California Republican Party.
I've been wondering about this the last day or two. I don't know that it's a deliberate plan, but it might play out that way.
I had expected Simon, at least, and perhaps McClintock, to poll higher than they have been. Admittedly it is still early, but in a lot of the polls they are both in single digits, and neither of them has gone much over 10% in any poll, While Schwarzenegger has been running 25-45%, and Bustamante 15-25%. So far -- and I repeat, it is still very early, and we're not really sure what polling data means in this weird sort of election -- it doesn't look like Simon and McClintock are drawing enough support to threatening Schwarzenegger's lead -- and in fact, attacks from candidates perceived by moderate independents and Democrats to be on the far right might actually help Schwarzenegger. But we'll have to wait and see.
REGION -- Former Governor George Deukmejian has agreed to be the honorary chairman of the committee to support Chief Justice Ronald George's re-election campaign. George, one of four Supreme Court justices on the November ballot, is facing opposition from abortion foes over his opinion striking down a law requiring teenagers to obtain the consent of a parent or judge for an abortion. The California ProLife Council has also challenged Justice Ming Chin, who is up for re-election and who joined in George's opinion last August. A former prosecutor, George has been chief justice of the court since May 1996 and is regarded as a conservative on criminal matters and a moderate on civil issues. Court observers say George has made a smart move early in the campaign by persuading Deukmejian, one of the state's most prominent conservatives, to head the re- election. effort.
What part of support for unborn babby killers do you think is most conservative. He is only considered a conservative in California. California where Joseph Stalin is considered a right wing nut.
Trust your instincts.
How'd Novak...get ahold of this dish?
That's a good question.
Ahhnie's gonna have to learn to keep his yap shut, even to "associates". He's got a mole.
No, you were right the first time. I'm no Ahrnold fan, particuarly after the Buffet Econ Advisor announcement yesterday, look at my tagline, but this is bunk. I don't know how to say this without being insulting, but Bob Novak simply lies. There's no other way to say it, the guy simply makes things up out of thin air. How the Chicago paper that employs him puts up with all his baseless, completely wrong "rumors" is beyond me. At least Peter Gammons is right OCASSIONALLY. Who would tell this arrogant old Paleocon anything anyways? I mean, all he does is gossip so you know its going to get leaked.
At least they ran corrections on Jason Blair's stories.
Right. I'm not in any camp and I've been hearing this stuff about Riordan for more than a year.
I also think these pocket-edition Machiavellis are worthless. Certainly there's manoevering and calculation but Bush might actually believe in Arnold when he praises him.
Duel of the taglines....my tag line beats yours.
In any case the Buffett anouncement was a stroke of genius...STRATEGERY even.
It diverts the dems who were just about to dump on Arnie....throws them off focus.
Now it's all about how Buffett will save CA millions in bond fees.....and who was resposnsible for this mess...dems in general and davis in particular.
Only in your mind.
In any case the Buffett anouncement was a stroke of genius...STRATEGERY even.
Wow, you're getting really desperate to put a happy face on this clear indication of a total busting of the "fiscal conservative" mythology.
It diverts the dems who were just about to dump on Arnie....throws them off focus.
Just like when Bush runs to the middle, we see the press appreciate that and ease off the gas. That's because they respect when their issues are finally implemented by a Republican. /sarcasm off.
Now it's all about how Buffett will save CA millions in bond fees.....and who was resposnsible for this mess...dems in general and davis in particular.
Wow are you going to be surprised when the media absolulely PLASTERS Ahnuld Buffet's name when those loans come due. I mean, how many times on the news do you hear that the reason for the recall is that "Davis turned a $12 surplus into a -$38.2 deficit, increasing spending from $67 to $100 billion, and lied during the campaign that the deficit was around $10 bil." I mean, that is the CENTRAL issue right now, but all you hear about is the "circus" timepoint. Take off your rose colored glasses!
You see, they are loans-we aren't the Fed-THEY MUST BE PAID. Therefore, this slight of hand in the budget, similar to Clinton's given to Bush, will eventually collapse, and they will be due. Unless the next Gov quickly and significantly cuts spending, which won't happen with Buffet, we will either be bankrupt...or we will have Reasonable Tax Increases.
Those by the way will push herds of businesses out of Coliforniya. I don't wanna be in the room when you finally figure this out after its too late.
All I was trying to do was to point out the inaccuracy of Novak's ill-informed commentary.
calgov2002:
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