Bush's Terminator [fascinating dish on Ahhnold & Riordan]

OpinionJournal.com ^ | 14 August 2003 | Robert Novak

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

Bush's Terminator

Robert Novak

August 14, 2003

WASHINGTON -- Arnold Schwarzenegger's late decision to jump into the California recall election was made after weekend meetings to plan what was supposed to be a campaign for governor by Richard Riordan. The two men, non-conservatives and only nominal Republicans, are friends and political allies. But the multi-millionaire movie actor was disturbed by the demeanor of the multi-millionaire former mayor of Los Angeles.

As Schwarzenegger later related to associates, he was unpleasantly surprised by his old friend. In their private conversation, the 73-year-old Riordan duplicated his shaky performance in losing the 2002 Republican primary for governor. To Schwarzenegger, Riordan seemed so confused and disorganized he could not possibly be elected governor. That was the trigger to create the state's current uproarious scene, casting a long shadow on national politics.

Behind the pandemonium of candidates by the hundreds, the outlook for the Oct. 7 election is seen clearly within both political parties. Gov. Gray Davis, still railing against the recall, seems doomed as the first California governor removed in mid-term by the voters. The outcome then becomes a choice between two candidates, neither of which could win his own party's primary: self-styled "moderate" Republican Schwarzenegger and Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. The advantages of Hollywood's Terminator suggest an unanticipated windfall for George W. Bush.

It is no secret that President Bush's political advisers were cool to recalling Davis. They relished the thought of the universally disliked governor twisting in the wind throughout 2004, helping Bush win in a state that surely would smother Democratic presidential hopes. But that delicious prospect has disappeared. The question is: who will replace Davis?

Bustamante as governor would not be good news for Bush. As a Democrat in the governor's chair, he would inherit Davis's fiscal problems but not his personal baggage. Accordingly, the election of a Republican Oct. 7 suddenly becomes a Bush priority. Nobody gives 2002 nominee Bill Simon a prayer, and State Sen. Tom McClintock is a very dark horse. That is why, on the day after Schwarzenegger nudged aside Riordan to become a candidate, the president declared of the five-time Mr. Universe: "I think he'd make a good governor."

The identity of the only possible Democratic replacement for Davis would seem to indicate nobody at the wheel in either party. Bustamante is an overweight, uninspiring career politician who has been in the right place at the right time during a charmed career. He has ended up as the most visible if not the most magnetic representative of California's growing Hispanic population. More attractive Democratic hopefuls for governor stayed out, pressured by Davis's loyalists in organized labor (though the school teachers started pushing for an alternative Democrat on the ticket).

Bustamante broke the line set by the governor, Democratic Chairman Art Torres and the unions to save Davis by keeping credible Democrats off the ballot. He had decided to run even before Schwarzenegger's surprise announcement. But it seemed Bustamante's lifelong good fortune would continue and his principal opponent would be Dick Riordan, who long ago had left his best game behind him.

Schwarzenegger changed all that. Bustamante certainly will not win on charisma, but he has many advantages: the only substantial Democrat in the field, his Latin ethnicity, and perhaps most important, the title "lieutenant governor" on the ballot.

This rare opportunity for a little known political lifer to become governor depends, ironically, on ability of conservative Republicans to tear down Schwarzenegger as an untrue believer. Simon and McClintock have begun the assault, and the news media immediately began pressing the new candidate to detail his positions. Longtime Democratic hit man Bob Mulholland talked about shooting "real bullets" at Schwarzenegger (though State Chairman Torres said he cautioned him against "using that word again").

The Republican establishment in Washington clearly hopes the Terminator can deflect those bullets. Schwarzenegger's posture as a pro-business social liberal is similar to what former Gov. Pete Wilson advocated as the last Republican elected to high office in California (in 1994). No genuine conservative has been elected in California since Ronald Reagan in 1970. Arnold Schwarzenegger may not be much of a Republican and not conservative at all, but George W. Bush welcomes anybody invigorating a comatose California GOP.

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

Now this is interesting. How'd Novak--who too often hits for the other side--get ahold of this dish? Cui bono?

It does Ahhnold no good to have a schism with Riordan, so... it must've been leaked to damage him.

Ahhnie's gonna have to learn to keep his yap shut, even to "associates". He's got a mole.

The game begins indeed!

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

Ping, and bring all your friends.

[veronica]

This rare opportunity for a little known political lifer to become governor depends, ironically, on ability of conservative Republicans to tear down Schwarzenegger as an untrue believer. Simon and McClintock have begun the assault...

These two should get out of the race now. They can't win. Simon in particular, ran a miserable campaign last time round. Let's not have a repeat of that debacle for God's sake. Move along fellas...

[RJCogburn]

I'm usually pretty serious about my politics, but this whole thing is just too amusing...at least from an east coast vantage point.

[Mr. Bird]

I have to agree. It just sucks that California has such a disparate impact on the nation's economic health. There is quite a bit at stake here, but it's just so damned difficult to keep a straight face....

[OldFriend]

Novak is an evil backstabbing troublemaker.

[EllaMinnow]

Novak is an evil backstabbing troublemaker.

Yep.

[Wait4Truth]

I am not a Novak fan in any way. However, he does understand that the race is between Arnold and Bustamonte. He also seems to think that Bustamonte will be elected due to the tearing down of Arnold by Simon and McClintock. On these issues, he's correct. The purists, as usual, will elect a RAT to the CA governorship. They will destroy any rebirth of the GOP in CA, they will ruin any possible chance of Bush winning CA in 04, they will make the clintons look like heroes once again...but no matter, they have their principles...right?

[B Knotts]

No genuine conservative has been elected in California since Ronald Reagan in 1970.

What was George Deukmejian? Chopped liver?

[Lancey Howard]

Ahhnie's gonna have to learn to keep his yap shut, even to "associates". He's got a mole.

I think he's got himself a leaker who leaks what he's told to leak.

[OldFriend]

What does your argument have to do with Novak carrying tales from the Arnold camp that Riordan was too confused to mount an effective campaign for governor.

Anyone who has seen Riordan in recent days could see that for themselves and it was hardly necessary for Novak to carry tales out of the Arnold camp.

[OldFriend]

California 2003 is NO California 1970s. Those days are gone forever.

All this chatter about Reagan is counterproductive. MUCH MUCH TOO MUCH WATER UNDER THE BRIDGE

[Sloth]

Bustamante as governor would not be good news for Bush. As a Democrat in the governor's chair, he would inherit Davis's fiscal problems but not his personal baggage.

I don't know... seeing as Bustamante has used the "N-word" in a public setting two more times than Bush. If the press ever reported that.

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

You people are amazing. Those of us who support candidates who are not, as freakin' Robert Novak admits, "non-conservatives and only nominal Republicans", are derided as "purists" who doom the state to Democrats. I've got news for you: you are dooming the state to a likeable but inexperienced cipher of a candidate who dazzles with star power but, to date, won't say what he stands for or what he will do, and who gives every indication so far of having not-a-dime's-worth-of-difference between his positions and a Democrat's.

I'd love to be proven wrong in that over time, but the burden of proof is borne by Arnold.

I admit, sifting through the tea-leaves of Arnold's past statements, there is reason for some optimism: his fondness for Milton Friedman and Ronald Reagan, for example. But his sole electoral accomplishment so far was to champion a highly socialistic taxpayer-funded after-school program "for the children", and now he's tabbed billionaire socialist Buffett as an economic advisor-- he of four-figure contributions to Hillary and Dodd and Shays and Feingold and Harkin. Very disquieting... yet to say so is to be "purist"?

Unless Arnold steps up to the plate and lists his positions, there's a real risk of mass delusion going on.

[B Knotts]

I don't understand your response to my question. My question is: how is it the case that no conservative has been elected in California since Reagan in 1970, when George Deukmejian served two terms as governor, from 1982 to 1990?

[Seajay]

And dont forget his very strong opposition to Clinton's impeachment (" ...I'm ashamed to be a Republican ... ") ...

[OldFriend]

For starters, thousands upon thousands, and probably millions of illegals vote.

[cyncooper]

You McClintock/Simon supporters sure like the term "you people".

What's up with that?

[MEG33]

I am too consumed with the Runaway Dems in Texas to point at California!

[brbethke]

But this is California, the Granola State, where being opposed by conservative Republicans is a bonafide virtue! Has anyone considered that the comments by Simon et al may be a carefully crafted diversionary tactic to fool the mushy middle into voting for Arnold, on the grounds that he's not a "real" Republican?