Running Man Hasn’t Won Yet: Don’t believe the CNN-Time recall poll.

National Review Online ^ | August 11, 2003 | Arnold Steinberg

[nickcarraway]

ping

[sinkspur]

This poll is not good news for Schwarzenegger, because it puts him on too high a pedestal.

And if Arnold had come in at 7%, Steinberg would be saying it's not good news because it shows he has no support.

Steinberg is likely working for Simon or McClintock.

[Incorrigible]

I forgot about Running Man.  Ha!  Running Man, Total Recall.  This is an election just for Arnold!

 

[truth_seeker]

"— Arnold Steinberg is a California political strategist and pollster."

Whatever, Arnie. Dream on if you think Davis can avoid the recall.

Arnold S. will also be elected.

[lasereye]

I agree with his points. First, I'm still not convinced there'll be a yes on recall. Second, I think Schwarzenegger has probably peaked already.

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

Thanks for a well reasoned article. Time will tell.

[Republicus2001]

"Better a circus than a whorehouse"

---John & Ken Show KFI, Aug 8, 2003

[Saundra Duffy]

Absent the intervention (i.e., money) of U.S. Congressman Darrell Issa (R.), the recall would have fallen flat.

That's not true, right there, so I think the rest may be B.S., also.

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

Ping

[dead]

I'm convinced there will be a Yes vote on the recall, but I think Bustamante could certainly win, especially if all three Republicans remain in the race.

[Saundra Duffy]

Hi, pal. I heard that Arnold came out AGAINST partial birth abortion and FOR parental consent for abortion. Have you heard that? If true, that would make him a little more acceptable to the conservatives. It looks to me like he's IN LIKE FLYNN but I'm still going to vote for Tom McClintock.

[goldstategop]

The caveats are all to the good. We should not be swept away in the euphoria of the moment. At the same time I take issue with Arnold Steinberg's contention the recall doesn't have legs. There have been similar drives launched against previous California governors and NONE of them made the ballot. Darrel Issa's money helped spur a cause that seemed to go like all the others before it, but the money alone nor a widespread and deep dislike of Gray Davis accounts for its unexpected success. The recall election is basically when all is said and done, a vote of no confidence in the state's political establishment. Normally the "YES" side has to work harder to convince voters why its necessary to change. In the present situation, its reversed. The "NO" side has the burden of demonstrating why things would get worse if the governor were removed from office. They can't which is obvious to every one who sees what's going on. No one is saying AS is a shoo-in. Steinberg would be right if the CNN-Time poll predicted a pre-ordained outcome. But at the same time, its clear that Gray Davis is finished here as Governor. The only real question is who will replace him and I suspect we'll find out the answer on October 7th.

[Wright is right!]

Unfortunately for this typist (author), there has already been a 3-day poll, eclipsing the first one. In the 3-day Gallup Poll, the recall has over 60% yes, and Ah-nold is up to 48% with no one else in double digits.

This guy also probably predicted a "quagmire."

Michael

[William McKinley]

My reply:

I have to differ. First off, when talking about Cruz Bustamante, the poll identified him as the current Lieutenant Governor. Democrats knew he was a Democrat.

As for the euphoria comment, it is a fair one, but I am not sure how much weight should be placed on it. The mainstream media fixates on favorable numbers, but often the real tale is in the unfavorable numbers.

For Arnie, 6% said there is not much chance they would vote for him, and 24% said there was no chance. There is only 30% of the likely vote which is out of his grasp.

In comparison, for Bustamante, 8% also said there was not much of a chance they would vote for him, but a whopping 47% said no chance.

And if we go by registered voters rather than likely, Arnold's negatives are only 35% while Cruz's are 50%.

That is a huge difference. It is very unlikely to be a mirage. And the only other candidate with low negatives? Richard Riordan, who was included in the poll on the possibility he might run. His negatives were 40% of registered voters and 33% of likely voters. But who benefits the most by Riordan not running?

The man he endorsed.

That Gallup poll does not show weakness for Schwarzenegger. It shows tremendous strength.

Disclaimer: I do not live in California. If I did, at this point I would be supporting either McClintock or Uebberoth (I don't know enough about his social views). But if I did live in California, and come election day the poll numbers looked like this, I would go and vote Arnold.

[nickcarraway]

I haven't heard that, but I'd like to hear exactly what his positions are. Yes, right now he is the frontrunner, but anything can happen. And don't forget, the current governor may be a lousy job, but he's fantastic at trashing his opponents. He is probably going to havev a few tricks up his sleave before all is said and done.

[daviddennis]

Look at the trend - in a couple of weeks, recall has gone from 51% for to 65% for in the latest poll. That's quite a shift, and indicates that the only people opposing the recall are the State workers who feel (quite rightly) that their jobs are on the line.

It seems most likely that Arnold will win the recall - I would certainly not bet against him - but no, it's not sewn up. Nothing this unpredictable ever is. I would like to see Arnold introduce himself to the voters, up close and personal. (His fundraiser would probably have to be in the Colosseum to house all the people wanting to come!)

So yes, one never knows. But it does look really, really good for him.

D

[Yaelle]

"Better a circus than a whorehouse"

---John & Ken Show KFI, Aug 8, 2003

Bears repeating. This soundbite, obviously a John Kobylt special, says it all.

[rodeo-mamma]

Actually, Arnold's numbers might go up as more and more supporters of McClintock and Simon come to realize that a vote for either is really going to be a vote for Boosta-montez

[nickcarraway]

He didn't say there is bad news for Arnold, just that a lot can happen between now and the election. I think it's naive to believe everything is a forgone conclusion. Who knows what could happen. Plus, you may not realize, Gray Davis will not go down without a fight, and this guy knows dirty tricks. And you may not know how easy voter fraud is in California. How we vote may have little to do with the final result. (BTW, in last years primary, R. Riordan started out with a 45-3 lead, and lost by a lot)