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I do wish more people would see such things. Thank the gods for the Internet.
# of Iraqis not killed by Coalition compared to estimates
# of Iraqis not murdered by Saddam since deposed* x # of days since 1 May 03
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( )
x (birth rate per day of those saved above x # of days since 1 May 03)
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( )
- # of Iraqi deaths reported by www.iraqbodycount.net
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# of Iraqis alive because of the compassion, competence and
love of humanity by the US-led Coalition.
* incl. # of Iraqis not dying from sanctions since they were lifted
A Calculated example for Sunday, August 10, 2003:
Minimum Maximum
48,000 3,900,000
+ 47/day x 71 days 548/day x 71 days
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
( 51,337 ) ( 3,938,908 )
+ ( 34.2 per 1000 population per year x (51,337 or 3,938,908) / 365 days ) x 71 days
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( 51,678 ) ( 3,965,112 )
- 6087 7798
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45,591 3,957,313
References:
http://www.tellthechildrenthetruth.com/Saddam_Hussein.htm
http://www.cesr.org/iraq/docs/humancosts.pdf
http://www.medact.org/tbx/docs/Medact%20Iraq%20report-spread.pdf
http://www.ippnw.org/CollateralDamage.html
http://www.geographyiq.com/countries/iz/Iraq_rankings.htm
http://www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/internal.html
World Health Organization
(with support from UNICEF)
(WHO estimates 100,000 to 500,000 civilian casualties.)
There are several calculations estimating civilian deaths:
MedAct estimates a “range from 48,000 to 261,000 for a conventional conflict and additional deaths from postwar adverse health effects could total 200,000.”5 The World Health Organization estimates 100,000 direct and 400,000 indirect casualties and anticipates that “as many as 500,000 people could require treatment to a greater or lesser degree as a result of direct or indirect injuries.”6
Estimated Casualties
The World Health Organization is estimating 500,000 casualties distributed in the following manner:
South – 100,000
Center – 200,000
Baghdad and surrounding area – 200,000
the policies of Saddam's regimes led to an average of perhaps 200,000 Iraqis dying per year through brutal repression, slaughter by chemical weapons, government-forced poverty and so forth
http://www.deanesmay.com/archives/000840.html
I would love to sit down and figure out how many people Saddam’s regime slaughters every day. Then, we could make some sort of counter that reads “Peace with Iraq has claimed (x) lives”. The counter would include every death that can be laid at Saddam’s feet going back to the end of the Gulf war and go up daily. Let the other side A.N.S.W.E.R. for that…
Posted by Andrew Cory at February 20, 2003 09:41 PM
Dean (and Andrew),
Here are some preliminary numbers. Unfortunately, I won't have much time today to follow-up, but should over the weekend.
According to an article printed by Genocide Watch, an NGO founded in the Hague, Netherlands in May of 1999, Saddam is responsible for the deaths of roughly one million Iraqis.
http://www.genocidewatch.org/IraqkilledJanuary26.htm.
(This article was written by John F Burns, a NYT correspondent who also wrote the article that Dean linked to a few days ago.
Of those one million, 500,000 died in the war with Iran, and another 100,000 died in Gulf War I. I am inclined to exclude those for the sake of being conservative. This means that Saddam is responsible for the deaths of 400,000 purely civilian Iraqis.
Saddam Hussein has been in power since July 16, 1979. Through the writing of the article I cited above that is 8,740 days meaning that on average roughly 47 Iraqi civilians die every day Saddam Hussein is in power. You can do the math yourself, but since I have already done it that’s nearly 1,500 per month, or 17,000 per year.
In direct response to your question Andrew, Saddam is responsible for roughly 200,000 purely civilian deaths since the Gulf War (using my form of analysis).
I would like to stress that this is an EXTREMELY conservative number. I have read quite a few articles on the topic since Andrew’s post and I feel confident that most experts on the situation would agree that my numbers are a low-ball estimate.
Posted by Mike Plaiss at February 21, 2003 10:01 AM