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I agree with your comments, and you followed the previous CA gov election well. I think any one of the Republican candidates could win this one, considering what most Californians think of Davis.

By the way, I've been at a Scottish - Celtic festival for the last several hours and just got back, surprised to find so many posts to this question. I believe there are a lot of Simon and McClintock supporters out there, and this is very, very good news.

You know, sort of OFF THE SUBJECT, but:

. . . how come the phony liberal (local Bay Area CA) news never refers to that fat slug Larry the Hut Flint as DEMOCRAT LARRY FLINT? The phony liberal news keeps calling it a CIRCUS with "action movie hero, REPUBLICAN Arnold Schwarzenegger" in the race, but the same phony liberal news never says "porno-magnet, DEMOCRAT Larry Flint" (or whatever his name is) ...

I think that what has to happen for Simon or McClintock to win is that Schwarzenegger has to succumb to the trials of the campaign. He's an engaging personality, and his entry into the campaign changed the focus of discussion from whether Davis will survive to who will be the next governor. Also, some say that he scared Feinstein out of the race, or more precisely, his floated rumors of not running caused a complacency in the Feinstein camp that led them to believe that they didn't need to get in. I never thought Feinstein would enter the race because she's in a much more secure position as a Senator-for-life and would be crazy to give that up for a two-year stint as governor of a failed state.

Right now, Schwarzenegger's strength is the disgust that California's voters have for the political establishment. Democrats are portraying him as an inexperienced candidate. The flip-side to this (that is being played up on talk radio) is that the "experienced" politicians in Sacramento are the people who caused this mess in the first place, so "experience" isn't something to crow about right now. If Schwarzenegger does fall, either due to dirt or a shallow campaign, he will then have to throw his support to either Simon or McClintock, and continue stumping for them, for one of them to win.

If Scharzenegger holds on, and if the people continue to want to send a message to Sacramento that they won't take the games anymore (like the secret meeting to conspire to elongate the budget crisis in order to solidify Democrat power), then he has a good shot at winning. Bustamante would then be his biggest obstacle. They will both play up the "immigration card" although Schwarzenegger is the true immigrant who made it and personifies the "American Dream," while Bustamante is an LA native (who is the son of immigrants) who helped make the mess in California rather than helped improve the people's lot. Schwarzenegger will have to tie Bustamante to Davis and everything that is wrong with Sacramento today.

If Democrats continue with the "Nazi" theme, then Schwarzenegger can cry racism (especially coming from an Hispanic who used the "N-word" in front of African-Americans on MLK Day) and link the Democrats to the national obstruction of Estrada on racial grounds, the smearing of Pickering as a racist when he has the support of his local NAACP, the obstruction Pryor because he's Catholic, the threats of obstructing Kuhl of California for the same reason, the smearing of Powell and Rice as "house slaves," etc., if he really wants to make the case that the Democrats go to extreme nastiness when they don't have anything else to offer and then try to offer themselves up as the supporters of racial minorities (I doubt he'll do this because he's too close to the Kennedy's).

-PJ