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But I also believe - and support - the idea that the Administration exagerated the immediate dangers

Your statement is very apropos for a discussion of the "Big Lie".

Here is what Bush REALLY said in the State of the Union:

"Some have said we must not act until the threat is imminent. Since when have terrorists and tyrants announced their intentions, politely putting us on notice before they strike?"

Obviously, he is not stating the threat is imminent, but that it would be a mistake to wait until it is thus.

Let me try to get to the heart of the issue.

Regardless of what Bush did or didn't say in the State of the Union of any other speech, most people believe we went to war with Iraq because of their WMD programs and connections with terrorists. The Administration made that case.

But I don't believe those were the real reasons. The neocons, and the Administration, believe that the principal danger to us lies not with Al Queda or Saddam's WMDs but with the entire Muslim world - a world mired in hatred, humiliation, frustration, and defeat and burning with a desire for revenge. Any weapons will do - boxcutters, knives, airplanes, anything. There's no direct defense possible. So we've decided to try to change the culture - or destroy it.

This policy will require continuous warfare and great expenditure for many years. It could not, and cannot, be sold honestly to the public. So the Administration emphasized WMDs and terrorists.