GOVERNOR BUSTAMONTE AND LEARNING TO DO SIMPLE MATH

[Chancellor Palpatine]

California registered voters, by party.

To all the mathematics challenged "true conservatives" gleefully carving up the GOP votes with more candidates, please carefully observe the numerical superiority in the number of registered Democrats - nearly 1.5 million - which is augmented by roughly 150,000 green party members.

Also look at the group of 2.3 million unregistered voters - a group which is not historically wedded to the "true conservative" wing of the CaliforniaGOP - a fact borne out in several elections.

If one considers that Cruz Bustamonte is enthusiastically backed by the state apparatus if the majority of the voters go over the threshhold and ashcan Davis (which I'm now in doubt over, since Simon is entering), and considering that there is no credible prominent Democrat opposition to him, then how does it help to carve up the GOP vote by having Simon and McClintock at the same time as Schwarzenegger?

[txrangerette]

"Rush made the same mistake".

I heard that, too. For the life of
me, can't imagine why he would be so
slipshod in his show-prep as to deal
in such MISinformation on something
this crucial.

Blew my mind!!!

[eureka!]

Yep. All in all though, Rush does an incredible job. But yes, that one was a failure in staff support....

[Eva]

Do an on-line poll, right here on Free Republic of all California posters. The results should clear up any doubts of what you are saying. I think you're right. Arnold may not be a conservative, but he's the best choice that Republicans have in California. Sometimes you have to take what is offered.

[Chesterbelloc]

There are going to be over 500 names on this ballot. I assume that they will be in random order? Think of the logistics of voting.

I'm guessing a certain subset of people when actually confronted with this list in the voting booth will not want to search through it. I bet some only choose from the names on the first page. I bet one bright group votes for a different person on each page. I wonder if this subset will be more liberal or more conservative or pretty balanced between the two. The swing of just a few percentage points could make the difference. This will be very interesting...

[ER_in_OC,CA]

There are at least three Democrats who say they will run so far.
Audie Bock (already entered)
Cruz Bustamante
John Garamendi

So far, it looks like there are three Republicans:
Tom McClintock (I believe he's already entered)
Bill Simon
Arnold Schwarzenegger

Also, don't forget our favorite guaranteed-to-pull 4%+ from the liberal dem wing guy -- Peter Camejo!

It may be true that Simon and McClintock will fare better than Bock and Garamendi, but we'll see how things fare. It is very likely that the poll-leader will have momentum and draw voters from the others.

Although there are more registered Dems than Reps in CA, you should take into account voter turnout. Traditionally, those satisfied with the status quo (i.e. Dems in this case) are less likely to vote than a motivated "upset voter" (see the 1994 US congressional elections).

Add the Ward Connerly racial privacy initiative and you will very likely have a strong turnout of those who want to dump Davis and those who will vote for a Republican.

Furthermore, there are some big flakes in the Independent or Non-Affiliated crowd will end up voting for fashionable candidates like Flynt, Coleman, Camejo, and yes -- Schwarzenegger. Of course, most flakes won't show up to vote this time.

Let me add that I'm unsure that the powerful Dem machine will be ready for an effective GOTV effort this time. Will the buses and voting "escorts" do their usual job in getting union members and "special interest group" members out to vote? I think this will be a weak spot for the Dems.

Lastly, given what we learned about many Dem voters in Florida -- what makes you think that the bussed-to-the-polls voters will be able to find Bustamante on the ballot when there's 50+ names to sort through? I have my doubts.

Keep in mind that the ballot ordering is NOT straight alphabetical, so there is no guarantee that Bustamante will be near the top of the ballot.

These are all thoughts worth considering if you're seriously interested in this and this isn't just a typical vanity post with your usual lambasting of Conservative Republicans in California.

[So Cal Rocket]

I think if a Republican wins, the Democrats will start a recall within the week.

Willie Brown has already said that the Dems will start the recall the day after the election if a Republican wins.

[Sabertooth]

Re: Bustamante. Given that he is beholden to La Raza and has that n-word problem, I don't see him polling well among blacks. Is Garamendi in yet? If Cruz is the only Dem, I don't see a good likelihood of a high Democrat turnout, either.

Arnold's strongest electable attribute is not his status as a moderate, but that he doesn't come across as yet another state-wide, Republican wimp. That's not going to be enough to sway my vote, though.

I think Arnold should bow out so as not to siphon ballots from McClintock. OK, seriously, I'm not excited about a center-left Kennedy beachhead in my state and in my party. Not to mention that he's a ticking, personal scandal time bomb.

[Dog Gone]

There are going to be over 500 names on this ballot.

I think that's highly unlikely. There have been that many who began the initial paperwork, but still have to pay the fee and get the signatures in by tomorrow morning. Relatively few have completed the process.

[ER_in_OC,CA]

Recalls have been tried frequently against CA Governors. But none got enough signatures until now. Politics isn't dirtier now than ever before, believe me. So just *maybe* the difference is Gray.

[So Cal Rocket]

I think one of the differences is the Internet.

[Chesterbelloc]

Relatively few have completed the process.

Thanks, I didn't know that.

[ER_in_OC,CA]

According to the Secretary of State of CA, 443 candidates have started the process, and 17 have already completed the paperwork.

Of the 17, there are 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans already on the ballot.

Info according to this weblink:
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/recall_cand.htm

[buwaya]

Bustamante is not an illegal alien.

Why not a hispanic governor ?

How would Bustamante as Governor make CA part of Mexico ?

I'm not for Bustamante, but jeez, some people love going overboard.

[KE]

There are at least three Democrats who say they will run so far. Audie Bock (already entered) Cruz Bustamante John Garamendi So far, it looks like there are three Republicans: Tom McClintock (I believe he's already entered) Bill Simon Arnold Schwarzenegger Also, don't forget our favorite guaranteed-to-pull 4%+ from the liberal dem wing guy -- Peter Camejo!

From Chris Matthews guest tonight it sounds like the Dems are still looking for some "outstanding" demo who could beat Gray and probably Leon Paneta will sign up tomarrow !!! So how does this change everyones out-look?

Karen

[DM1]

actually i think that the greens by and large will vote for Camejo (Green Party candidate) since this is probably their best shot at obtaining a higher office since if there are enough candidates you can win with 15% of the vote. I tend to agree with you though that there should be less Repubs running, unify over someone like Arnie who can appoint some of the more conservative candidates to whatever posts he could find.
just my observations :)

[ER_in_OC,CA]

Panetta entering would be great as long as other Dems stay in the mix. His name recognition amongst the common populace is low.

I guess we should be having this conversation on Sunday when all the candidates are real.

I read in the news that the Dems tried to beg Garamendi to drop out, but he has publicly refused and said he's in this until 10/7.

[Torie]

Paneta would be hard to beat if he has the money. He is fairly fiscally conservative (a Trongras type Dem), and comes across well, with a calm demeanor (he used to be a Republican way back when by the way). I would favor him over Arnold.

[novacation]

If Bustamonte gets in, with his love of illegal and hatred of whites, there is no saving California. Arnold doesn't sound like he will be any good. You are right the governor will be limited in power, but a conservative mouth piece would be a nice change.Considering all of the idiots that the other people of California put in office there is little reason to be optimistic about the future. I wish Wall Street would cut up California's credit cards. It is very sad that such a great state has been overrun and is run by morons and derelics.

[Dog Gone]

Thanks for that information. The media is enjoying hyping the heck out of this recall election, so it's good to have a reality check.

[Republican Red]

Rush knew all the facts. He was not stating that Davis could resign and Bustamonte would become governor and no recall. He knew the procedure.

What he was saying is that he does not believe the Democrats will ever let it get to an actual election. He didn't know what they could do but he believed that based on Florida 2000 and NJ 2002 there is no way the Democrats will alow an election. Again, Rush couldn't explain what methods the Democrats will use but he believes they will do something.