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1 posted on 08/06/2003 8:11:58 AM PDT by TroutStalker
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To: TroutStalker
Gee, why do you mention it?
2 posted on 08/06/2003 8:13:33 AM PDT by AdamSelene235 (Like all the jolly good fellows, I drink my whiskey clear....)
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To: TroutStalker
"But without the kinds of statistics painstakingly developed and tested over time, they were grasping at straws. Indeed, authors of a 1988 article in the American Economic Review analyzed the data available to economists in the 1920s and concluded "the Depression was not forecastable."

But with the statistics we have now, are we better able to forecast, or not?

If you believe the length of the depression was primarily due to the policies of the Roosevelt administration, how will Bush avoid making similar mistakes?

I don't think there's any sound methodology for forecasting what politicians will do in the future....
3 posted on 08/06/2003 8:18:37 AM PDT by proxy_user
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To: harpseal
everything's rosy ping...
7 posted on 08/06/2003 8:27:10 AM PDT by LibertyAndJusticeForAll
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To: TroutStalker
This is the ultimate nonsense, the underlying assumption of which is that the economy CAN be predicted in the first place. More to the point, what did economic statistics of the past in 1929 have to do with predicting the self-destruction that was soon to be visited upon the nation by the Smoot-Hawley tariff hikes and the tax hikes enacted to "balance the budget". The economy would probably have functioned well if the government had not committed economic hara-kiri.
19 posted on 08/06/2003 8:38:36 AM PDT by B.Bumbleberry
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To: TroutStalker
No depression, just high inflation due to the Fed being forced to monetize the gargantuan debt by selling bonds.


BUMP

27 posted on 08/06/2003 9:11:23 AM PDT by tm22721 (May the UN rest in peace)
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To: TroutStalker

Oh Yeah?


In 1931 the editors of The Viking Press put together a marvelous little book chronicling some of the public statements of prominent figures leading up to the October 29, 1929 stock market crash and in the early days of the great depression. Some of these are shared below.


downchart.gif (3729 bytes)"The outlook of the world today is for the greatest era of commercial expansion in history. The rest of the world will become better customers."

Herbert Hoover, speech at San Francisco, July 27, 1928.

"Unemployment in the sense of distress is widely disappearing.... We in America today are nearer to the final triumph over poverty than ever before in the history of any land."

Herbert Hoover, speech accepting the Republican nomination, Palo Alto, CA, Aug. 11, 1928.

"Secretary Lamont and officials often Commerce Department today denied rumors that a severe depression in business and industrial activity was impending, which had been based on a mistaken interpretation of a review of industrial and credit conditions issued earlier in the day by the Federal Reserve Board."

The New York Times, Oct. 14, 1929.

"The fundamental business of the country, that is production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis."

Herbert Hoover, statement to the press, Oct. 25, 1929.

"Conditions do not seem to foreshadow anything more formidable than an arrest of stock activity and business prosperity like that in 1923. Suggestions that the wiping out of paper profits will reduce the country's real purchasing power seem far-fetched."

The Wall Street Journal, Oct. 26, 1929.

"Believing that fundamental conditions of the country are sound and that there is nothing in the business situation to warrant the destruction of values that has taken place on the exchanges during the past week, my son and I have for some days been purchasing sound common stocks. We are continuing and will continue our purchases in substantial amounts at levels which we believe represent sound investment values."

John D. Rockefeller, Sr., Oct. 30, 1929.

"There are no great failures nor are there likely to be."

Monthly Review, National City Bank, Dec. 2, 1929.

"Never before has American business been as firmly entrenched for prosperity as it is today. Steel's three biggest customers, the automobile, railroad and building industries, seem to me to justify a healthy outlook. This great speculative era in Wall Street, in which stocks have crashed, means nothing in the welfare of business. The same factories have the same wheels turning. Values are unchanged. Wealth is beyond the quotations of Wall Street. Wealth is founded in the industries of the nation and while they are sound, common stocks may go up and stocks may go down, but the nation will prosper.

Charles M. Schwab, Chairman of the Board, Bethlehem steel Corp., address before the Illinois Manufacturers Association, Chicago, Dec. 10, 1929.

"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism. During the Winter months there may be some slackness or unemployment but hardly more than at this season each year. I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the Spring and that during the coming year the country will make steady progress."

Andrew W. Mellon, New Year's Day message, Jan. 1, 1930.

"Trade recovery now complete, President told. Business survey conference reports industry has progressed by its own power. No stimulus needed. Progress in all lines by the early spring is forecast."

New York Herald Tribune headline, Jan. 24, 1930.

"The psychological effect of stock market activities on business is, I think, usually overemphasized.... I do not think that the fall in security prices will itself cause any great curtailment in consumption,..."

E. H. H. Simmons, President, The New York Stock Exchange, Jan. 26, 1930.

"Business will be all right. I am not in the least pessimistic. You notice that everybody is anxious to be at work; that is one of the healthiest signs of the times. -- There is no such thing as overproduction.

Henry Ford, quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, July 31, 1930.

"The average man won't really do a day's work unless he is caught and cannot get out of. There's plenty of work to do, if people would do it."

Henry Ford, quoted in The New York World-Telegram, March 18, 1931.

"With the exception of the difficulties that have arisen as a result of the drastic deflation of commodity prices, the business horizon is clear.... we all know that the present period cannot long endure."

Richard Whitney, President of the New York Stock Exchange, address before the Merchants Association, New York, Sept. 10, 1930.

"The country is not in good condition."

Calvin Coolidge, Jan. 20, 1931.


52 posted on 08/06/2003 12:28:32 PM PDT by gcruse (http://gcruse.blogspot.com/)
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