Replies

This is good, right? Or should I continue softly sobbing, my head under a pillow?

It's a bad news good news story.

The bad news is -- "Challenger, Gray & Christmas July planned layoffs increase 43% over June"

The good news is -- You will have no problem finding a job giving guided tours of downtown Toledo.

Richard W.

It's mixed at best. Most of the index increase came from new orders, yet looking at what new orders shows (from the full report):

New Orders
ISM's Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index increased to 66.9 percent in July from 57.5 percent in June. This was the highest New Orders Index since the inception of ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Survey in July 1997. The previous New Orders Index high was 61.6 percent in October 1999. Comments from members include: "Increased sales"; "New capital investment"; "Increased economic activity"; and "New accounts/customers."
The industries reporting the highest rates of growth of new orders in July are: Agriculture; Communication; Finance & Banking; Construction; and Utilities. There are no industries reporting contraction of new orders in July.

So, while the new orders are good, the fact that agriculture lead, and construction, utilities trailed indicates to me a cyclical effect (argiculture activity is generally up in summer) and construction (is real-estate and interest rate sensitive) trailed off, is not indicative of a strong ongoing recovery.

While it's good to have some backlog, it's better to deliver on those orders and it's not good that a backlog grow too quickly. Backlogged orders are orders that can be cancelled.

Imports are growing, exports are shrinking, employment growth is marginal.

You should read the full report, and form your own opinion as well.

A rather significant leap I'd say. If you combine that with the earlier Personal Income figures, I don't see a lot of "bad news" here.