[marron]

North Korea is in effect a Chinese protectorate. The road to Pyongyang goes through Beijing.

Any peaceful outcome will come about by using whatever leverage we have with China. The leverage we have is limited; trade concessions such as Most Favored Nation status which could be reconsidered or revoked, or the threat to provide nuclear weapons to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

China may attempt to sell its help in Korea in exchange for our betrayal of Taiwan. Or, if war comes to the Korean peninsula, it may sell its acquiescence at the same price; it would be easy for us to deny assistance to Taiwan if we were engaged in heavy combat and no one would ever question the decision.

An invasion of North Korea carries with it several threats.

The first is that neither Japan nor South Korea may be willing to back us.

The second is that Korea's force along the border, just a few miles from Seoul and our own base, may be impossible to defeat quickly enough to avoid massive damage to the city and our garrison. Impossible, that is, without resorting to the use of tactical nukes. Whether we have the will to use nuclear weapons, in a first strike, to clear the battlefield is doubtful, almost unthinkable. Which means we have to be willing to absorb the enormous civilian losses that will result if war breaks out at the edge of Korea's largest city.

The third is that China is unlikely to sit with hands in pockets while we invade its puppet kingdom. Unless we have done our political work very well, we may find ourselves confronted by the Chinese Army, which ups the ante. What is the level of force required to defeat not only the North Koreans but the Chinese as well?

I believe we could do it, if we were serious, but it would not be Iraq. It would be violent beyond belief, and again we would have to consider the use of tactical nukes with all that this would entail.

We could probably buy off the Chinese, but the price is Taiwan.

The force needed to defeat the North quickly would need to be brought in. It could not be brought in without the whole world knowing it, so there will have to be a buildup, which will give both China and the North plenty of opportunity to cause trouble. The likely result will be a preemptive strike by the North before we are ready. Again, if the north with its million man force were to cross the line, we would almost certainly be forced to resort to nuclear weapons or see our garrison overrun and Seoul destroyed.

It can be done, but it will be a much tougher nut to crack than Iraq, both politically and militarily. China almost certainly owns more US politicians than did Saddam, and that would be a factor in a way that it was not in the Iraq war.

[risk]

>>>> The first is that neither Japan nor South Korea may be willing to back us.

Your analysis is provocative, especially the part where Taiwan becomes a bargaining chip. I think South Korea will fight (the sudden realization had already struck them that this was serious when we talked about leaving or even just "reorganizing our presence"). I also think Japan will fight, too. It may be instructive to consider the possibility that both South Korea and North Korea see Japan as a common enemy. This could throw a monkey wrench into the works, but I don't think so. South Korea will come to its senses the minute Japan joins the fray on its side. North Korea will be "enraged" at the entry of their former nemisis into the conflageration, but we can only hope that it doesn't last very long.