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To: tortoise
Your take on these things interests me. Any particular investment newsletters you'd recommend? Newsletters are my preferred means to track investment strategies.

Or should I make it a habit of scanning FR for your posts every few weeks <grin>?

49 posted on 08/03/2003 8:59:19 PM PDT by ThePythonicCow (Mooo !!!!)
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To: ThePythonicCow
Gold is a VERY bad investment, as another poster has already told you. Your doom&gloom advisers aren't all that great. Good thing you've gotten out. :-)
53 posted on 08/03/2003 11:10:06 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: ThePythonicCow
Your take on these things interests me. Any particular investment newsletters you'd recommend? Newsletters are my preferred means to track investment strategies.

No, I don't read newsletters or anything like that. In truth, I only vaguely follow the market. My power is that I'm deeply involved in many different lines of business, understand their fundamental economics, and use my skills as a mathematician to build a coherent model of the entire system. It is a pleasant side effect of my being too bored doing any one thing in life. As a consequence, I've always been extraordinarily "lucky" in the market and business in general. That said, I rarely give advice on specifics, only on general principles. I don't trust my own opinion enough to offer it to other people despite its track record. I can't stand the idea of ever giving someone a piece of bad advice.

These days most of my money has been dumped in small and very savvy privately held companies. Startups basically. As a rule of thumb, the startups in places like Silicon Valley that form during the really barren years and survive to the next boom cycle general become the next big profitable companies for that boom cycle. The reason for this is well-known, though it doesn't seem to encourage most people to actually invest, and places like Silicon Valley have had several tech boom-bust cycles that most people seem to forget about. During the worst part of the bust, companies form that can attract unemployed talent that is the cream of the crop, and because there is literally no capital available, they must be lean, mean, and profitable. Companies that manage to survive a couple years of this kick ass during growth periods because the talent and business culture has already gelled in its "lean times" state, which makes them ruthless and efficient businesses.

My only real recommendations is to immerse yourself in the business world itself. You learn far more from being in contact with the dark underbelly of the beast than you ever do listening to self-anointed analysts. You don't even have to be an executive or anything like that, just "involved". If you don't understand what you are investing in, you are essentially gambling and the internals of most business is nothing like it appears on the surface. I understand science and technology extremely well and the business surrounding it, and I exploit this fact in a sea of business types.

You can make a lot of money on the stock market no doubt, and I have. But the really fat cash is in small private ventures, particularly if you are savvy enough to separate the winners from the losers. A top-notch stock trader will average a return of 2x year after year. A top-notch investor in small startups can average 5-10x year after year through boom and bust. In reality, most really savvy investors just play a couple rounds and cash out though.

66 posted on 08/04/2003 1:34:11 AM PDT by tortoise (All these moments lost in time, like tears in the rain.)
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