Posted on 08/02/2003 9:07:46 PM PDT by Paul Ross
Machine Tool Co. Bankruptcy Sends Ripple Through JSF Program |
By James Ott |
July 27, 2003 |
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![]() MONKEY Wrench
After winning the $18.9-billion contract to build the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co. in the summer of 2002 placed a $12.3-million order with Ingersoll Milling Machine Co. for custom-made machine tools to produce parts for the stealthy tactical aircraft. As of April of this year, Lockheed Martin had paid Ingersoll more than half the contract price but it still had no machines delivered. Then came the jarring news. Ingersoll had shut down.
A giant in the machine tool field, Ingersoll was one of five companies in the world capable of manufacturing sophisticated machinery used in the production of both metal and composite parts for airframes and engines. The Rockford, Ill., factory had sent signals of possible trouble in recent years when it sold off several divisions. But the cessation of operations came as a surprise that sent a shock wave through the machine tool and aerospace industries.
"It was a sudden development," a Lockheed Martin official said. "It got people's attention."
Officials of the JSF program at Lockheed Martin, known in memo language around Fort Worth as LM Aero, stared at the ugly prospect of a huge slip in the multinational F-35 program. Under the aircraft's initial test phase, the manufacturer is scheduled to produce the first of 22 aircraft in the spring of 2005, with other test aircraft following in quick succession. These 22 comprise 14 flying models to execute various missions from traditional takeoff and landing to carrier operations, and eight aircraft destined for ground tests. By 2013, 459 aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps and the British Royal Air Force are scheduled to be built.
In the weeks following Ingersoll's Apr. 22 bankruptcy filing, which sought court protection under Chapter 11 of the code, Lockheed Martin's attorneys cited risks to national security if the machine tools were further delayed. In early June, the manufacturer asked the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for Northern Illinois to approve an unusual plan that involved Lockheed Martin leasing the Ingersoll plant for $70,000 and completing the building of three drilling machines, possibly with laid-off employees.
The request, opposed by a committee of creditors, was taken under advisement by Judge Manuel Barbosa. In recent weeks Lockheed Martin withdrew the request and put into place a backup plan. On June 17 it hired Cincinnati Machine, an Ingersoll rival and the only other U.S. company that can build both metal-cutting and composite-forging machinery, to complete the work on two of the machines at the Ingersoll plant in Rockford.
The two Ingersoll machines will stand more than two stories high and stretch 70 X 20 ft. The automated machines are designed to drill holes in the F-35 wings and fuselage at high speeds. Personnel from Cincinnati Machine will join with former Ingersoll employees to complete the work and deliver the machines to Fort Worth where drilling is scheduled to begin in 2004. The third piece of equipment will be completed at Cincinnati Machine's new plant near the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport and delivered later.
Lockheed Martin officials said that in spite of the Ingersoll bankruptcy the F-35 program is not behind schedule though it was a narrow escape. "If it dragged on, that danger certainly was there," spokesman John Kent said.
The Ingersoll bankruptcy that put a kink in the JSF program underscores how an upheaval in a critical industry such as machine tools can threaten the processes of aerospace manufacturing. In the U.S. Congress, concerns over the loss of manufacturing expertise have spurred a new and stricter version of the "Buy America" movement. The House version of the Fiscal 2004 defense authorization bill contains a host of guidelines and restrictions aiming to protect U.S. industry. The Bush administration, the Pentagon and industry are split on the effectiveness of the legislation (AW&ST July 7, p. 23).
MORE FODDER FOR "Buy America" was generated by Rep. Don Manzullo (R-Ill.), chairman of the House Small Business Committee, who conducted hearings earlier this month on the struggles of U.S. manufacturers against foreign competition and the preservation of the defense industrial base. Manzullo was instrumental in getting a provision in the defense authorization bill that requires any new U.S. weapon to have been produced by a U.S.-manufactured machine tool. That provision could have a huge impact on U.S.-based aerospace companies, which have been acquiring non-U.S. machine tools since the Japanese entered the field aggressively more than 15 years ago.
Preservation of the U.S. machine tool sector serves as a local issue for Manzullo. The campus for bankrupt Ingersoll lies in his home district. Now, Dalian, a Chinese machine tool company, which has already acquired a division of Ingersoll, is one of several bidders to buy what's left of the company.
Rich Carter, Manzullo's aide from his Rockford office, said the Ingersoll bankruptcy robs the U.S. of a company that has performed a critical skill. Ingersoll manufactured a variety of traditional milling and drilling machinery and the machines that produce composites of two general types. Composites are produced by a "tape laying" system or by fiber placement. The former is used for flat, lightly contoured parts such as wings and stabilizers. Fiber placement parts are more complex and include the fuselage and engine cowlings and other such cylindrical shapes.
Carter said the U.S. now has only one company that can produce both kinds of machinery. "And that could affect the future of our weaponry," he said. "If something happened to Cincinnati Machine, we wouldn't have the capability to do that kind of work ourselves."
The machine tool sector has averaged $36 billion in annual worldwide sales in 2000 and 2001, according to data collected by the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology (AMT) in McLean, Va. The association represents 320 U.S. companies, each a manufacturer of tools known in the trade as computer numerical control (CNC) machines. Since 1999, the number of association members has dropped from approximately 400. In the last 18 months, 30 U.S. companies have liquidated, filed for bankruptcy or been sold, said Patrick W. McGibbon, vice president for industry marketing services for AMT.
The U.S. formerly represented a $5-billion piece of the $36-billion total sales. In 2002, the U.S. either produced or purchased equipment overseas valued at $2.9 billion. China, the newcomer in the machine tool field, either built or acquired machine tools valued at $5.7 billion. George Rathke, ATM's vice president for international trade, said the Chinese produced tools by themselves that represented half of the $5.7-billion total. The rest was imported.
Machine tool employment in the U.S. has been in steady decline for more than two decades. The peak was reached in 1980 with a workforce of 110,000. In 1998, the most recent peak sales year, employees already had declined to 61,000. Currently, there are 41,000 in the workforce.
The current down cycle in U.S. orders for machine tools has been the longest since the Great Depression (see chart p. 48), but problems have spread beyond the U.S. AMT's McGibbon who tracks world trends said machine tool divisions of Daewoo and Hyundai have faced financial difficulties. Japan's Hitachi Seiki recently closed a plant in Alabama. Consolidation has been a trend around the world, including in Europe. Proprietary technologies are being sold in the process. For example, Cincinnati Machine bought the Power Flow technology of the bankrupt Swedish company Modig for the production of aircraft stringers. The Power Flow tooling is part of the main machine and eliminates the need for special setups, with cost savings of up to 50%, according to Chip Storie, vice president for aerospace sales.
Many of the machine tool industry's problems stem from the downslide in manufacturing in most parts of the globe. Just prior to the downturn, orders for machine tools hit a peak, building a surplus of capacity that still exists. "Aerospace is down and other industries are down," said Mark Waymouth, Aerospace Group marketing manager for Makino, a Japanese firm that operates an exhibition and training center at Mason, Ohio. "China is experiencing some growth."
Makino, formerly LeBlond Machine Tool Co., has sold a MAG 4 machine to Airbus for the manufacture of wing ribs in Britain for the A380. The MAG 4 can produce up to 85% of the structural parts for an aircraft. The MAG 3, which can produce 75% of required aerospace parts, has been a bigger seller. Five have been sold since last September, each for under $1.5 million apiece.
Waymouth said Makino has emphasized training of new users and is counting on continued growth of regional-jet production, at least for the shorter term, to help it through the downturn. Waymouth also sees a broader field of clients including small shops as candidates for new machinery. This is due to the shift by prime manufacturers, such as Boeing, from in-house parts development to subcontracting parts-making jobs to contractors.
After closing its parts operations at St. Louis and Kent, Wash., and reducing operations at the Auburn, Wash., facility, Boeing has turned to Vykor Inc. of Seattle, a company headed by former Boeing technicians, to coordinate parts manufacture. Vykor works with 30 suppliers, primarily U.S.-based companies, in an affiliate network, applying its Velocity software to exploit equipment already in place efficiently.
"Suppliers have been squeezed financially in the downturn. A lot of them are on the edge and struggling," said Todd Wallen, Vykor's vice president for product strategy. "They have been slashing overhead and trying to reduce prices for OEMs [Original Equipment Manufacturers]. They are demanding huge decreases and suppliers have little ability to respond; margins are small to begin with. We work cooperatively with the OEMs and suppliers and implement savings."
Vykor has contracts with other leading manufacturers, Lockheed Martin for the F-22, Cessna and Vought Aircraft.
OUTSOURCING IS a trend that began in aerospace in the late 1990s, following a similar one in the automobile industry. Embraer has increased its subcontracting of metal cutting by 25% from its previous practice. Boeing outsources much of its metal cutting work. Both Boeing and Embraer have retained composite parts making for the same reason. The process of qualification and certification of suppliers is complex and high investment is required. But Wallen expects that Boeing will begin subcontracting more of its composite work in future.
The machine tool industry has been hammered, but all is not lost, said Linford Stiles, president of Stiles Associates, a New London, N.H.-based management consultancy. He has seen evidence of three companies rebounding as they shed old ways of doing business and antiquated equipment. He cited the changes at Japanese-owned Mazak in Florence, Ky., that started seven years ago. The company introduced automation to the manufacturing process, using automatic tool changing and electric carts to move parts and equipment on a railway. The plant is operated by a minimum number of people and operates 24 hr. a day.
"These American companies are old and traditional. They can't learn quickly enough about getting rid of the waste," Stiles said. "Where it has happened, it has worked. It sounds simplistic, but good management can make these things work."
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Well, there's the thing. They need to re-tool an get back on line. Given the luctarive nature of JSF, I bet there will be a good chance it will happen.
But I guess optimism like this will just be considered "whistling in the dark."
With the closing of vast tracts of federal land and the destruction of mining laws which had the potential to reward those who found new mineral resources, those who go into geology are largely going into environmental career tracks, not resources discovery/exploitation.
Not just WWII ... but also the Cold War ... the shift from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy has been the greatest mistake in US history. PERIOD.
Good motivation to buy American, especially for our military.
From 1996 onward ..these 2 examination groups have baulked at the Pentagons numbers and forward thinking.
From Pentagon baseline estimates of cost per plane..with increase for certain services like Marines and Navy..the CBO and GAO have been bang on...while the Pentagon has blown this ride in unbelievable fashion.
excerpt assay from 1998:
Breaking down the per-plane costs reveals how much credit Defense is giving itself for achieving "commonality." The Pentagon's cost goal for the air force JSF is $30 million per plane. However, the CBO-relying on the historical relationship between size, capability, and cost-calculates that $45 million per plane is far more likely. The Defense goal for the navy version is between $34 and $41 million, but CBO counters with $57 million. And for the marine corps version, it's $33 to $38 million according to Defense, and $50 million according to the CBO.
By 1999..the single unit cost per plane was up to $63 Million....now it is over $70 Million.
Here..CBO and GAO are thinking ahead..ie.."What are you going to do to address the aging U.S. inventory until this wonderplane comes online"?
Excerpt:
In recent years, op-ed pages and Pentagon reports have fretted that foreign defense contractors would soon be producing fighter planes superior to anything "Made in the U.S.A." But this "fighter gap" is difficult to square with reality. The Russian aerospace industry once had grand plans for twenty-first century MiGs, but it is so cash-strapped that it might not be able to build them until the twenty-second century. The on-again, off-again Eurofighter 2000 is stalled, and the French Dassault Rafale is unproven and available only in limited numbers. American F-15s and F-16s remain the world's preeminent air-to-air fighters. Further, no country boasts anything like the extraordinary numbers of combat-ready fighters the United States has in its inventory [see "Numbers Game," p. 32]. But forget numbers, defense planners say. They argue that the U.S. air fleet is aging and will become less reliable, more expensive to maintain, and more difficult to repair. Unless a next generation is quickly developed, the Pentagon warns, U.S. fighters will reach ages unprecedented in the era of aerial combat. Their solution: the JSF. According to Defense projections, deployment will begin around 2008 and run through 2025. During peak years, 122 planes will roll off of assembly lines and into military hangars. But is building a new type of plane the only way to fix the aging problem? Not according to the Congressional Budget Office. In its 1997 report, "A Look at Tomorrow's Tactical Air Forces," the CBO proposes-among other options-revving up the assembly lines for F-15s and F-16s, which would address short-term needs for planes and allow time to fully test newer designs before rushing into production. Building more planes from existing designs would also save billions, says the CBO. And as Chris Hellman of the Center for Defense Information says, "F-15s can be built for pennies on the dollar" compared to any of the next-generation fighters.
My comment:
One must consider the history of Pan corporate all weather combat aircraft.
The Panavia Tornado may have produced a reasonable platform..but in no way was the aircraft excellent.....by the time it was in production..it was marginal in performance at best..and in no time flat..its electronics were outdated...requiring endless revamping in radar..targeting..commlink.
CBO and GAO can see the writting on the wall with these world consortium aircraft...**They nearly triple in cost.if not double..and they are marginal in performance...ie..nothing new..rehashed 3rd with some 4th gen tech all weathers.
Euro Typhoon is another dog.
The only aspect which verges on being breakthrough..is the multi tasking/target computer suite..and some snappy turn performance.
Really useless..when an opponent can target it from standoff ..and launch a hypervelocity missile at it.
The JSF is not some breakthrough design....it just vector nozzle application..with inboard weapons bays.
You could mod....F-15..and F-16...put the best over the horizon targeting comp suites in them..and mount new generation hypervelocity missiles....and ***Dominate the air with them.
Now..so many seperate world nations are involved in data relay electronics for JSF..it will surely be the doorway for the programs compromise.
Russians and Chinese will do a JSF with little in the way of cost..as they steal all the prevalent technology.
JSF...a complete mismanagement ..forsight reality.
Cudo's to CBO and GAO for being on the ball with this...yet no one can toast a glass on JSF...it has gone just as these 2 examiners have projected..with the American taxpayer reeling in the numbers wake.
Congress should have leashed this puppy from the start.
Keep our F-15 and F-16'S Unmatchable in combat with new generation technologies..for pennies....and JSF...well its Missouri state thinking here folks..."You better Show Me"..before I fund this.
In 1982 Israel forces went into Lebanon.
This required the IAF..to remove force projection from the gameboard at the outset.
Israel was more concerend with Syria 's SAM sites than Syrias airforce.
Basically//IAF flew strike package much as the U.S. Wild weasel opps of the Vietnam era...more advanced electronics in this go round.
In 48 hours IAF dominated The Lebanon....if Syria turned something on..it went by by really quick.
With the SAM grid cleaned out..IAF could support the mechanised move of IDF...IAF helo's were free to cruise about are wreck havock on Syrian mechanised assets.
Syria lost 80 combat aircraft in a few days..it was a slaughter in the skies for the IAF.
In one instance..the Syrians began to chat openly on one frequency as they formed up after take off.
IAF pilots aquired their signature..reset target lock parameters..fired..and turned away.
I moments..a wing of 15 aircraft fell from the skies.
By the time the Syrian onboard radars picked up the IAF missiles it was too late..in some cases..the Syrians never even changed formation...they got annihilated in a milisecond..by superior over the horizon targeting.
And they did not learn from this either..as IAF did them for 3 days this way.
days later..Syrian aircraft stayed in Syria..and what remaining pilots did fly were freaked to do comm traffic for fear of going to Allah shortly.
This was 1982...and is a kodak of what would really occur if nations sent their birds on each other in a theatre conflict.
Today..first to aquire ..is first to go home alive.
Over the horizon targeting technology is still primacy for the U.S. and with Israel..both nations share knowlwedge...they have very efficient aquiring systems and performance missiles.
yet ...the dominance gap is narrowing..as radar technology stolen..and hypervelocity technology stolen..is appearing in Russian and Chinese arsenals.
Electronic warfare is really the threshold now concerning aircombat and theatre dominance.
Phantom projections....radar masking...saturating certain airspace quadrants so as to minimize the attackers abilty to target.
Much of the killing is going to occur at amazing distances.
Staying alive with some of the hypervelocity missiles which exist will be hard..as they are multi tasking as per the defense mechanisms which aircraft will emply once painted.
In some cases..if the radar onboard paints you..you will die..unless you punch out..their is no way to survive once the missile has you data lock.
I suspect..aircombat will become an attrition reality...simply..who has more aircraft and missiles..because both nations will be getting their birds dropped in staggering numbers.
In WW-2..it was the pilots skill which prevailed.
U.S. R and D'd the best way to fly certain aircraft in combat..as the Experten Lugftwaffe pilots fell away to attrition..the contest eventually became a one sided reality..with a youthfull German pilot lucky to survive 3-5 missions.
Today...the pilot is still required in the loop..but is offset by the opponents target aquisition capability.
The opponent may have an inferior aircraft in performance scale..but if he has a capable radar..and sophisticated missile suite...he will be an on par match..if he can survive just a few seconds more..or a dozen miles..to get his shots off.
Janes intel..Stratfor and other intel sites convey what they know of Russian and Chinese radar and missile performance.
Claims are made...exagerations exist.
Yet the gap of air dominace is closing fast...as radars with sat uplink are able to paint aircraft over the horizon..and target fast moving missiles..which are intelligent to defeat countermeasures.
I believe the U.S. and Israel will stay ahead..but clearly..their opponents will not be easy kills like it was in Vietnam..Lebanon and the recent Iraq wars.
And it also would be accurately called, 'singing in the rain'!
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