Posted on 08/01/2003 5:01:16 PM PDT by heleny
Congressman might run, too
Candidacy declaration first step to getting name on recall ballot
By Timm Herdt and John Mitchell, herdt@insidevc.com jmitchell@insidevc.com
August 1, 2003
To the growing list of potential candidates who may seek to replace Gov. Gray Davis should he be recalled on Oct. 7, add the name of nine-term Ventura County congressman Elton Gallegly.
Gallegly, R-Simi Valley, on Thursday filed a declaration of candidacy to run on the recall ballot -- an essential prelude to actually becoming a candidate, but not a formal entry into the race.
More than 60 people statewide have filed such declarations, including a dozen in Ventura County. All it takes to officially file is $3,500 and the signatures of 65 registered voters.
Gallegly becomes the second member of Congress to join a crowded field of Republicans to declare an interest, a field that also includes Rep. Darrell Issa of Vista, Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks, Los Angeles businessman Bill Simon and, potentially, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan.
"I'll be exploring all possibilities," Gallegly said as he filled out the form at the Ventura County Government Center. "Right now I'm just trying to get details out of the way, trying to stay one step ahead. It's better to be one step ahead than one step behind."
Political analysts say that Gallegly's ultimate decision, and that of dozens of other potential candidates, will depend largely on whether a big-name Democrat decides to break ranks and enter the race and whether Riordan officially gets in. The answers to those questions will be known at 5 p.m. Aug. 9 -- a week from Saturday -- when the filing period closes.
The recall ballot will pose two questions: Should Davis be recalled, and if a majority of voters decides he should be, who among a field of potential replacements should fill the remainder of his term?
"It's not surprising that Gallegly is thinking about it," said Republican political consultant Richard Temple. "There are so many other candidates who are not that far apart. There are all sorts of angles being played on this."
Asked to comment on Gallegly's entry into the race, state Democratic Party political adviser Bob Mulholland noted that the number of potential Republican contenders is growing by the day. "It's like a circus putting out a job notice," he said.
As a practical matter, members of Congress do not typically have strong name identification outside their districts and would be at an initial disadvantage against candidates such as Simon, McClintock, Issa and Riordan, all of whom have previously run on a statewide ballot.
"If a strong Republican gets in or a strong Democrat, the moderately pragmatic people will probably drop out," Temple said.
Democrats have thus far remained united behind Davis in opposing the recall. Strategically, Davis has a better chance of defeating the recall if there are no prominent Democrats among the long list of possible replacements.
Three Democratic members of the state's congressional delegation this week publicly suggested that their party is taking too big a risk in putting all its hopes on defeating the recall. They urged Sen. Dianne Feinstein to put her name among the potential replacements, suggesting Democrats then run a campaign asking voters to defeat the recall, but in case it passes, to also vote for Feinstein.
Should the field be left without a strong favorite -- a candidate with high name-recognition and financial resources -- the balloting could be fractured enough to allow someone with a relatively small percentage of the vote to finish on top.
That would make it possible, analysts say, for a candidate to focus on a single issue and capture a large enough share of the vote to win.
In his prepared statement announcing his intent, Gallegly made clear he would focus his campaign on the issue of illegal immigration.
"I firmly believe that illegal immigration is at the root of California's economic problems," Gallegly said. "It depresses wages, taxes our schools and health-care systems, and increases the burden on our criminal justice system."
Gallegly has $1.03 million in his congressional campaign account, most or all of which could be transferred to a gubernatorial account. He estimated that it would take at least $6 million to run an effective campaign.
His action means that the four congressional and legislative representatives who represent eastern Ventura County -- all Republicans -- have expressed an immediate interest in running for statewide office. In addition to Gallegly and McClintock, Assemblyman Keith Richman said this week he would run for governor if Riordan did not. And Assemblyman Tony Strickland of Moorpark is expected to formally announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate soon.
Strickland said he would support McClintock if the senator officially enters the race, but that he welcomed Gallegly's interest in the campaign.
"It's better to have more choices than less," he said. "Here's another candidate who feels he could do a better job at leading the state than Gov. Davis."
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