US ISM Index 51.8 in July vs 49.8 in June

Biz.Yahoo/Reuters ^ | Aug 1, 2003

[Starwind]

US ISM Index 51.8 in July vs 49.8 in June
Friday August 1, 10:06 am ET

 NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Institute for Supply
Management, formerly the National Association of Purchasing
Management, on Friday reported its monthly indexes of
manufacturing activity for July.
 A listing of the main ISM components follows:
.              July  June   May    April  March  Feb   Jan
PMI            51.8  49.8   49.4   45.4   46.2   50.5  53.9
New Orders     56.6  52.2   51.9   45.2   46.2   52.3  59.7
Production     53.3  52.9   51.5   47.0   46.3   55.4  56.3
Employment     46.1  46.2   43.0   41.4   42.1   42.8  47.6
Supplier Delvs 51.1  50.0   51.3   50.0   53.8   53.3  52.6
Inventories    45.9  41.3   46.1   42.7   42.3   43.8  45.4
Prices         53.0  56.5   51.5   63.5   70.0   65.5  57.5
Backlog Ords   51.0  50.0   51.0   47.5   41.5   49.0  45.0
Export Orders  53.8  54.4   50.8   51.1   52.0   55.5  55.6
Imports        56.0  56.4   52.2   54.5   52.5   55.4  59.0
 FORECAST:
 A Reuters survey of economists on average expected a median
reading of 51.8 in July versus 49.8 in June.
 THE SURVEY: The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is
based on data provided monthly by purchasing executives at over
350 industrial companies. It reflects changes in the current
month compared with the previous month. Responses are raw data.
 FULL TEXT:
 http://www.ism.ws/

[Starwind]

The full ISM Manufacturing report is at July Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

[Starwind]

Fyi...

[LS]

Slightly falling unemployment, stock market up 25%, rising ISM, rising personal income,initial jobless claims down three weeks in a row and I haven't even gotten my tax cut check yet. Looking better.

[AntiGuv]

Guess what? The market's not wearing your rose-colored glasses:

[LS]

My glasses aren't rose colored. Yours are tinted dark black.

But, given that every day the market has opened low, it finishes high, how about we wait until this afternoon?

And, given that overall the market is up 25% in the last three months, I think that's a trend.

[AntiGuv]

The countertrend rally peaked June 17th. Since then, the market's been moving rangebound waiting for direction. It appears it just got some. BTW, construction spending was 0.0% versus +0.4% consensus.

[Starwind]

But, given that every day the market has opened low, it finishes high,

Incredulous absolute statements like that, combined with your ridicule of any attmept to elaborate on the details of reports beyond the headlines, and a near slavish preocupation with market index levels as justification, demonstrate your total lack of objectivity.

[LS]

Pot calling the kettle black, I'd say. I watch the futures every day. Probably 75% of the time, when they open high, they close lower. When they open lower, they close higher. This is, imho, two things happening. 1) the EXPECTED indices, right or wrong, don't always jibe with the announced results, and 2) end of day trades by the "biggies" take advantage of either high or low prices.

Now let's hear your brilliant analysis of the numbers, wise guy.

[AntiGuv]

And, given that overall the market is up 25% in the last three months, I think that's a trend.

A trend of what? Don't tell me you're also one of these foolish people who acts as if each market rally is the first of its kind... This rally would be perfectly consistent with the other countertrend rallies of this secular bear market:

DJIA Post-Bubble Rallies

03/08/00 - 04/12/00: +21.7%
10/18/00 - 11/08/00: +16.5%
03/22/01 - 05/21/01: +26.4%
09/24/01 - 03/08/02: +30.2%¹
07/24/02 - 08/22/02: +21.9%
10/10/02 - 12/02/02: +26.4%
03/12/03 - 06/17/03: +27.2%

This routine postwar 'sentiment' rally has obscured the fragility of the overall economy for the time-being. That'll change as soon as the market turns decisively downward again.

¹Technically two rallies: 09/24/01-12/06/01 (+24.0%) and 01/30/02 - 03/08/02 (+13.6%).

[LS]

Guess that explains the HIGHER consumer confidence numbers. You are reaching. BTW, how are things at DU?

[LS]

Um hum. You must live on anti-depressants. Jimmy the numbers all you want though. I'm sure that makes your day.

[AntiGuv]

The consumer confidence numbers were lower - 76.6 in July vs 85.0 consensus vs 83.5 in June. The Michigan sentiment numbers were barely higher - 90.9 in July vs 90.5 consensus vs 90.3 in June.

[Starwind]

Pot calling the kettle black, I'd say.

Of course you would. You have no intellectual alternative but to drag others down to your level of comprehension.

[ex-snook]

But ...
Is government spending driving the well-being of the economy?
Or is the well-being of the economy driving government spending?

Guess that will be an open question until the war ends 2,4,6,8,10 (?) years from now.

[Teacher317]

"ISMs in my opinion are not good.
A person should not believe in an ISM.
He should believe in himself."
~Ferris Beuller

[arete]

You are reaching. BTW, how are things at DU?

Good heavens Sparky, get a grip already. You're turning into a mindless bot. Not everything is political.

Richard W.

[LS]

I agree, and I apologize. If I posted this to you, my mistake. I know you are a serious person and we have serious differences.

BTW, here is something from the Gilder fridayletter.com. It speaks to my contention that we have not yet addressed the key issues in tech, and when we do, there is a boom a-waitin': "the Korean example demonstrates that the full transition from the dial up world to full multimegabit broadband entails about a 100fold rise in traffic in three years. That transition will happen in the US over the next four years or so. The change will congest the existing networks." A hundredfold increase in traffic in three years, you must admit, is a lot.

[LS]

No, I'm just astounded at you "gloomsters" ability to take FIVE good reports in a day and find the ONE that seems to make your case for a "stagnant" economy. But keep workin' on it. I'm sure you'll perfect the technique by the time the boom comes.

[LS]

Oh goodie. Then let's pick the "confidence" numbers this month, which suits our need, and the "sentiment" numbers next month which suits our need. You guys need to figure out which stats you really want to ride here. Last month it was manufacturing---but damn, those went up. Can't have that.

[AntiGuv]

The ISM report was below consensus, and self-evidently below the level required to actually produce additional jobs in manufacturing. Quite the opposite, 71,000 manufacturing jobs were lost. I have no problem addressing whatever figure you see fit to have me address. You chose to bring up the confidence numbers, and I therefore addressed them. Sorry that didn't work out to your rhetorical advantage. Such a darn shame. Really!