The largest pot of money anywhere is in IRA and other retirement accounts. When the government has to go after every available dollar, they are not going to leave the largest reservoir untapped. And they won't be able to wait until you start drawing it out and it becomes taxable under current law.
"Second, the piece I saw in NRO had no shortfall, period. This is way too far in the future, of course, for either side to present credible assessments of what "might" happen.
"Surely if you've been alive for 20 years, you know that we have had this "social-security-is-going-bust" for as long as I can remember. I'm not saying it is either morally supporable or financially sound. But I dismiss these "sky-is-falling" reports..The point is, there are people---very smart people---at universities who do this for a living, and they won't predict anything this far out."
Paul Oneal, as Secretary of the Treasury was chairman of the SS Trustees and commissioned the Gokhale & Smetters report in that capacity. Gokhale worked at the Federal Reserve and Smetters at US Treasury If we don't find some credibility there, why believe anything?
The SS tax that was collected in the beginning was the actuarial amount thought to be adequate to fund SS in perpetuity. It was 1% of the first $3,000 of income. Check your last paycheck stub and let me know how well government actuaries project the future and whether they tend to underestimate or overestimate shortfalls.
I'm not saying these guys aren't credible. But surely you've heard the old nostrum that if you put 100 economists in a line they would hever come to a conclusion. I've been to plenty of conferences where very bright people come to totally opposite conclusions about numbers (which seems impossible).
Anyway, I think the money will be there. More than enough. Moreover, I think any projections more than five years out are no more reliable than reading goat entrails.