Terror Betting Dropped

Sky News ^

[my_pointy_head_is_sharp]

'TERROR BETTING' DROPPED

The Pentagon has abandoned plans to set up a 'terror stock market' in which investors could bag cash by successfully predicting terrorist attacks.

US defence chiefs had hoped the market would have been a valuable tool in second guessing when terror strikes would occur.

But critics dismissed the move as "unbelievably stupid", "ridiculous" and "grotesque".

The programme, which would have run on the internet, was called the Policy Analysis Market and would have been overseen by the Pentagon and the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency.

Windfall

Traders would have been able to buy and sell futures contracts - just like energy traders do when they bet on the future price of oil.

But the contracts would have been based on Middle Eastern affairs, such as economics, civil and military affairs or terrorist attacks.

A successful terror attack, which could have resulted in many deaths, would have led to a windfall for the holder of the futures contract.

The agency statement said the project was "investigate the broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks".

Investors would have been able to have signed up on Friday and trading was due to begin on October 1.

'Unbelievably stupid'

Two Democratic senators slammed the move.

"The idea of a federal betting parlour on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," said Senator Ron Wyden D-Ore.

Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan described the market as "unbelievably stupid".

"Can you imagine if another country set up a betting parlour so that people could go in ... and bet on the assassination of an American political figure or the overthrow of this institution or that institution?" he said.

An agency statement defended the move saying markets could reveal, "dispersed and even hidden information. Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions".

[my_pointy_head_is_sharp]

I can't believe nobody posted this.

[rdax]

Two Democratic senators slammed the move.

I don't know why they slammed it. Democrats have been hoping for a windfall from a terror attack, economic failure, bad war news, etc.

[El Laton Caliente]

It has been all over talk radio, 890 WLS, in Chicago. Actually it is a pretty good, if new, statistical tool and has been used before.

[Tacis]

It does seem like a stupid idea. However, dropping the concept has probably pissed off some of the fiction writers. My bet is that a guy like Tom Clancy had already sketched out a story about some rogue CIA agents placing some BIG bets and then rigging an international "event" that met some US purposes brilliantly but also won the bet. Ah well, I'll find something else to read on the plane.

[Burkeman1]

I think there are two posts on it already- under different titles.

[RoughDobermann]

I can't believe nobody posted this

Posted here, here and here