Northern New England winter shrinking, study says

Boston Globe ^ | July 23, 2003 | Stephanie Ebbert

[cogitator]

I want to know what this means for maple syrup and sugar maples that give those storied New England autumn scenes their rich red color.

[ClearCase_guy]

Do a survey and ask New Englanders if winters are getting easier. Last winter was brutal. One winter does not a trend make, but if the most recent winter completely flies in the face of the theory, then there might be a problem.

I believe Boston averages 43 inches of snow a year (that's from memory and could be wrong). About 10 years ago, we got over 8 feet of snow. Three years ago, we had snow on the ground for about 6 months straight (very unusual). The last winter (as I stated) was very cold and unpleasant.

I really do not see much evidence of Global Warming in New England over the past 10 years. But hey, what do I know? I'm just a resident.

[cogitator]

Last winter was brutal. One winter does not a trend make, but if the most recent winter completely flies in the face of the theory, then there might be a problem.

I don't know how closely you read the article, but you state the truth. One winter does not a trend make. I live near the "mountains" of Maryland, and we can have decent winters, and this last one was tough. But it was the first one I remember since 1996 that was notably tough.

Here's a quote from the article that addresses what you said.

"That may be tough news to take after the past winter, which seemed, to many, to last a lifetime. But despite annual variables, the study says the long-term trend is consistent with changes previously documented on the New England springscape: lilacs blooming earlier in the past decade than in the 1950s and '60s; ice disappearing sooner from lakes. And, while the scientists resist blaming any human causes, they point directly to the rising thermometer as the Grinch stealing the ski season."

[mlmr]

The artilce is not talking about the quality of the winters but instead about the duration. I concurr with the duration changes. All my life my birthday weekend was peak foilage season here in Maine. Now it is one to three weekends later.

[talleyman]

Cold makes a lot of things shrink. And heat makes things expand - that's why the days are longer in the summer...

[Mike Darancette]

In fact, in northern New England, their duration may now be a week or two shorter than in the 1960s, according to the US Geological Survey.

A week or two shorter? That is a 100% margin of error.

The study is likely to become another flashpoint in the debate over how much human releases of carbon dioxide and other so-called ''greenhouse gases'' are contributing to global warming.

This study just proves that the flow patterns of selected NE rivers has changed in the last 30 years.

[ClearCase_guy]

I'm not a climatologist, so my opinions on these matters aren't worth much -- I admit that. Also, I'm fairly close-minded on the matter -- I think Global Warming is a political phenomenon that seeks to take advantage of natural events.

Having said that, I think that "the other side" is not too different from me. This article, as you point out, focuses not on the quality of the winters, but on the duration. I suspect (maybe 'cause I'm paranoid) that if there was nothing to talk about in terms of duration, they would cobble some data together about the quality of the winter. And if they couldn't get the "right" data on either duration or quality, they'd go with something else: "moisture-content of the snow has reached unprecedented heights", or some such.

I am not scientific in my disdain for Global Warming.
I feel that many scientists are not scientific in their promoting of Global Warming.

[traditionalist]

Do a survey and ask New Englanders if winters are getting easier. Last winter was brutal. One winter does not a trend make, but if the most recent winter completely flies in the face of the theory, then there might be a problem.

It's called noise. The winter length might be going down, ON AVERAGE, but that does not mean that every single winter is going to be shorter than the last. Statistics 101.

[ClearCase_guy]

I understand about the noise factor, but my memory is that in the past 10 years New England has had 3 brutal winters, 3 mild winters, and the rest "normal". Now, plot that out and tell me if there's a problem.

[RightWhale]

The picture postcard New England winter has always been a figment of imagination. Once in a while there is a cold snap, and sometimes there is a blanket of snow. But the winters are short and the blizzards rare. If you move to New England to enjoy the winter, you have chosen poorly. If you ever experience a grand winter in New England, then write home about it, it's unusual. Fall is the best season for color. Fall is a good enough reason to live in northern New England.

[cogitator]

A week or two shorter? That is a 100% margin of error.

That's hard to judge based on a media report about a scientific study. It would be much better to read the report's conclusions. But I took a quick look and found the USGS press release about the study:

Rivers Indicate Earlier Spring in New England

Critical section in determining what they actually conclude in the paper:

"The scientists compared the dates by which half of the total volume of winter/spring runoff has flowed past a river gaging station. Significantly earlier dates were noted at all 11 gaging stations in northern and mountainous areas of New England where snowmelt runoff has the most effect on spring river flows. The “center” of the winter/spring runoff near the end of the 20th century is as much as two weeks earlier than it had been at the beginning of the century."

Meaning: when the media interprets a scientific study, they look for the upper bounds, rather than the mean. My guess is that the mean for all of the rivers is about a 10-day earlier peak streamflow, which is consistent with the winter freeze/spring thaw data for lakes and rivers compiled a couple of years ago.

[cogitator]

But the winters are short and the blizzards rare. If you move to New England to enjoy the winter, you have chosen poorly.

Doesn't a lot depend on which way the winds are blowing over Lake Ontario and Erie? (And how warm they are, to generate lake-effect snow?)

[CatoRenasci]

One also has to remember that historically, over the past 1000 years or so, there have been significant climatic variations not caused by humanity. Consider that it was so warm in England in the 13th century that there was a large population increase and wine grapes were grown well into the midlands. The came the 'little ice age' in which Europe was cold as a witches [censored] for much of the 15th-17th centuries.

[Alas Babylon!]

Very good point. And because of facts like this, I am not disposed to disbelieve global warming. The Earth may in fact be warming up. But as to the CAUSE..... It is not mankind. The totality of climate in the past several million years (without mankind) has seen millennia of warmer than now and millennia of colder than now temperatures. Sometimes palms grow in New England, and sometimes New England is covered with miles of ice. Sometimes it's like it is now. Well, the overall temperature is going up. Good, maybe it won't be so dang cold in the wintertime!

[RightWhale]

Doesn't a lot depend on which way the winds are blowing

Oh yeah. If the wind is right, you are in for a treat. Unless you have to venture out in your car. But this is rare. Extreme cold is rare. Hurricanes are rare ['38 was interesting, they were still talking about it in '58. In other words, don't count on a great winter. If you stay 20 years you will probably experience a couple decently memorable winters.

[cloud8]

"I concur with the duration changes. All my life my birthday weekend was peak foliage season here in Maine. Now it is one to three weekends later."

Not only duration. Cold snaps are more frequently followed by thaws. The sap is running in March at 2000 feet, and springs and brooks at 3000 feet plus, 7 miles from Canada, no longer freeze.

[MrsEmmaPeel]

"Bull." --A Mainer

Last year was pretty awful - the winter that never ended. Where do these idiots come up with this garbage? From their private homes in FL?

[MrsEmmaPeel]

One also has to remember that historically, over the past 1000 years or so, there have been significant climatic variations not caused by humanity. Consider that it was so warm in England in the 13th century that there was a large population increase and wine grapes were grown well into the midlands.

You bring up points that I frequently bring up when this topic comes up. To date, I never met an astronomer who believes in global warming. There are far too many variables: the output of the sun being the biggest. A tiny, tiny change in solar output can really ruin your day/month/year here. And there is NOTHING we can do on this planet that effects solar output.

[Nucluside]

According to recent Harvard studies, as reported by Rush Limbaugh a couple of months ago, tree ring studies reveal that warming/cooling trends are very natural, and in fact during the Middle Ages there was an amazing warming trend THAT WE ARE YET RECOVERING FROM. Also, and conversely to what you all are writing, we are in a cooling trend. Global warming is a socialist myth. I haven't the skill yet to post those Harvard studies, but those of you who do have please help me out.
As we get closer to the elections the 'Rats search for any issue that will gain traction. That search for traction will include s--t based on junk science.