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This is Nick's find, so he gets full credit, but it needs posting. But I'm sure the FBI Behavioral Sciences unit is biased towards rapists. THOSE KOBOTS!

I don't believe that 15% is the number "used by the FBI." I think that might be Ms. Barry trying to be helpful.

In C.P. McDowell, & N.S. Hibler, False allegations, Behavioral Science Unit, FBI Academy, Quantico, VA, 1985 they examined 556 cases. They used a very tight criterion for determining that an allegation was false: the accuser herself had to recant the charge and admit that she had made it up. Under that criterion, 27% were found to be fraudulent allegations. They then gave the pile of less certain cases to a panel of three independent investigators. Their conclusion was that 60% of those were false as well.

E.J. Kanin, "False rape allegations." Archives of Sexual Behavior, 23(1) 1994 reports a study done at a university using similar citeria and concludes "false rape allegations constitute 41% of the total forcible rape cases reported during this period." Another done at two midwestern universities found 50%.

Whatever the number is, it is non-zero and large enough to give pause to anyone tempted to jump on every allegation of rape as if it must be true.

Here's another thing the FBI says, on a slightly different aspect of the problem: "Every year since 1989, in about 25 percent of the sexual assault cases referred to the FBI where results could be obtained (primarily by State and local law enforcement), the primary suspect has been excluded by forensic DNA testing."

They also say this:

The fact that these percentages have remained constant for 7 years, and that the National Institute of Justice's informal survey of private laboratories reveals a strikingly similar 26-percent exclusion rate, strongly suggests that postarrest and postconviction DNA exonerations are tied to some strong, underlying systemic problems that generate erroneous accusations and convictions.