Posted on 07/23/2003 6:24:25 AM PDT by Stultis
By: Barry Rubin
Understanding what is happening on the Israeli-Palestinian front depends on one's assessment of why things are happening. The idea that Israel has "won" the war initiated by the Palestinians in the year 2000 seems a reasonable conclusion, but one that must be quickly qualified.
Clearly, Yasser Arafat and his colleagues believed mistakenly then - as he had so often done before - that massive violence would advance their cause. They hoped to gain victory by wearing Israelis down through terrorism and by mustering international intervention. These efforts failed completely.
In addition, the Palestinians suffered large losses in both human and economic terms. Any social progress made during the preceding decade was lost and all the financial aid given after Oslo wasted or stolen. The Palestinians were clearly at a dead-end, in desperate straits, having sustained enormous damage and seeing no prospect of victory. Public opinion polls showed increasing disillusionment among Palestinians regarding a continuing war. Some Palestinian leaders insisted - albeit far more in private than in public - that the current strategy was a disaster.
In many respects, what happened in the second intifada paralleled events in the first one a decade ago. That uprising was marked by a great enthusiasm that went hand-in-hand with military and political failure. It lasted about the same length of time before the Palestinians became exhausted.
Yet despite all these "objective" factors today's battle would have gone on longer had Arafat not decided that a change in strategy was necessary. The costs, defeat, disappointment and dissent had their effect only once he concluded there was nothing more to be gained by continuing along the same lines.
This is good news and bad news.
The good news is that the shift occurred via Arafat and not Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen); which means the cease-fire is a lot stronger than might appear. Arafat has hit on the perfect formula for his current situation. The cease-fire is in his interest as he tries to rebuild his forces and probe for international support against Israel. At the same time he can blame any concessions on Abu Mazen, making it easier for him to play the great warrior without actually waging war.
The bad news is that this is a tactical, not strategic, shift. Any prospects for progress in peace negotiations are very poor. The Palestinian leaders have not changed a single one of their positions. On the contrary, by building such high expectations, fomenting anti-Israel hatred and justification for violence among their people it has become that much harder for these leaders to engage in the compromises needed for agreement.
Abu Mazen's position is extremely weak. He cannot carry Fatah, the PLO, the Palestinian Legislative Council or the security forces with him. Only some half-dozen of the top 100 Palestinian leaders are backing him. Yet even though Arafat fought him every step of the way, he played the vital role described above in promoting Arafat's own interests: With the prime minister in place Arafat could end the war and take no responsibility for doing so; without his PM he might have kept the fighting going for a long time.
Aside from this, however, nothing has changed in the balance of Palestinian politics. What is most significant was not Abu Mazen's threat to resign from the Fatah Central Committee but the fact that he was motivated to do so by the lack of support in his own organization. Arafat has sabotaged him on every aspect of governance. His power is so limited and his prospects so dim that no Palestinian leaders are going to defect to him in hopes of being on the winning side.
Given the unlikelihood of progress on peace, the tactical nature of the shift, and the continuing predominance of hard-liners among the Palestinian leadership, the most important developments of this round of events have already happened. Unless there is some real sign of change on any of these points Israel has little interest in making substantive concessions. There is simply no sense in releasing prisoners guilty of attempted or successful murder only to return to the chore at some future point.
Moreover, Israel has undertaken no obligation to do so. Such arrangements are not part of the Performance-Based Roadmap plan. On the contrary, Israel has every right to keep these people imprisoned, based not only on the right to self-defense but also in the context of the Oslo Accords, which these individuals did so much to destroy. Finally, it should be kept in mind that these are not political prisoners, in jail because they exercised free speech, but individuals who can legitimately be described as terrorists.
Israel does, however, have two commitments, the first of which is to withdraw from Palestinian-ruled areas. Now that there is undeniably a cease-fire, despite some violations by the Palestinians, such action is necessary to test their intentions and abilities. The second is to dismantle settlement outposts, a step in line with Israel's own policy as well as with promises given to both the United States and the Palestinians.
In short, one can be fairly optimistic about the current cease-fire (while highlighting ongoing violations and demanding they be resolved) and pessimistic about the prospects for a renewed peace process.
(The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, part of the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya (IDC). His most recent book is The Tragedy of the Middle East.)
WHY Arafat is still alive and breathing on this planet is a mystery?
Somebody should have off'd this IslamaNazi Mammzer a long time ago already!
Please scooze...the nasty "m" word, but I cannot seem to control my-self.
Abu...a worthless Puppet on a very thin...string.
Are you suggesting a targeted killing, like Uday and Qusay?
How awful!
The US would never allow Israel to do something like that!
Why then does ISRAEL, a Sovereign Nation need to seek... anyone's or any other Nation's Permission?
To Do The RIGHT Thing by putting that Ugly, Evil thing out of it's Misery.
The Double standards that the USA, the EU and the UN are pushing down ISRAEL'S throat (Do as I say, Not as I do) has gone on way too long.
It is time for ISRAEL to take a Bold Stand and Protect herself from her Enemies and IslamaNazi Terrorists!
What ever happened to?: "Either You are with US or You are with the Terrorists"!
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