Hussein Threatens to Become Symbol of Nationalism in Iraq Cybercast News Service ^ | 07-22-03
Posted on 07/22/2003 10:27 AM EDT by Brian S
By Lawrence Morahan CNSNews.com Senior Staff Writer July 22, 2003
(CNSNews.com) - Three months after U.S. officials declared an end to Saddam Hussein's regime, the former Iraqi dictator not only appears to be alive, but is also quickly threatening to become a symbol of nationalist resistance to forces opposed to the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq, officials and analysts believe.
Unless security forces can kill or capture Hussein, the United States and its allies will be severely handicapped in their attempts to set up a representative government in Iraq and withdraw their occupation forces, they said.
"The great danger for America is that, as time goes on and Iraqis feel alienated, he might become the symbol for general Iraqi disaffection rather than specifically the Baath Party disaffection, and that's exactly the cutting edge the administration has to head off," said John Hulsman, a senior foreign affairs analyst with the Heritage Foundation.
The Bush administration realized only belatedly that Hussein matters as a symbolic figure. So long as there are citizens of Iraq who believe Hussein is not dead, they will likely not be as cooperative as if they thought he was dead or at least caught and jailed, analysts said.
Paul Bremer, the U.S. civilian administrator in Iraq, said Sunday he believes Hussein is alive and hiding in the vicinity of his hometown in of Tikrit, where loyalists of the ousted dictator are orchestrating attacks against U.S. soldiers.
However, there is no evidence to suggest Hussein is behind the attacks, which are mostly occurring in the so-called Sunni triangle between Tikrit and Baghdad, Bremer said on TV news shows.
Sen. John Rockefeller (D-W.Va.), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on Fox News Sunday that during a recent trip to Iraq, he saw firsthand how people still fear Hussein.
"He's still alive, and he controls that country," Rockefeller said. "Not through popularity, but through fear and retribution."
Efforts to take out Hussein have frustrated security officials for months. At a Pentagon news conference Apr 10, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld declared Hussein no longer a player.
"He's either dead, or he's incapacitated, or he's healthy and cowering in some tunnel someplace, trying to avoid being caught," Rumsfeld said.
$25 million reward
Finding Hussein may not be easy, experts said. David Isenberg, a senior analyst with the British-American Security Information Council (BASIC), noted that Hussein ruled Iraq with an iron fist since 1979 and that it took nothing short of a military invasion to oust him.
Despite the horror Hussein inflicted on Iraqis, there are probably quite a few people there - including former Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard members, as well as members of the intelligence and security forces - who are willing to go to great lengths to protect him, if only because their own livelihood and futures are intertwined with his, Isenberg said.
"We are talking about a guy who spent decades building up a multiple-layered, incredibly effective and efficient security organization all dedicated to preserving his hold on power and keeping him alive," Isenberg said.
"You can't discount the possible serendipitous stroke of luck that somebody sees something, hears something, passes it on, makes its way to the U.S. forces, and they act on it in a timely fashion," Isenberg added. "But I think we are hoping against reality if we think it'll occur soon."
The U.S. forces in Iraq probably are making better progress in winning the hearts and minds of Iraqis than they're currently getting credit for, Isenberg said.
"I think there are considerable and substantial segments who are quite happy to have Americans, and you don't see that because you get lots of 'rent-a-mobs' who riot and protest on cue, and of course, you have continuing attacks on Americans," he said.
The U.S. forces are making "stumbling progress" on taking out people who are dedicated to killing American soldiers and in finding and destroying cells of people who are ambushing convoys, Isenberg said.
Five American soldiers were killed in Iraq since Friday, the U.S. Central Command reported in press releases, bringing to 38 the number of U.S. soldiers killed in the country since President Bush declared an end to major combat on May 1. The total U.S. combat death toll in Iraq since war began on Mar. 20 stands at 152, five more than the number of U.S. soldiers killed in the 1991 Gulf War.
The United States is offering a $25 million reward for information leading to the capture of Hussein, which is equaled only by the reward offered for Osama bin Laden, head of the al Qaeda terror network.
Both fugitives pose a unique set of challenges to their pursuers. Bin Laden has proven himself a resourceful guerrilla fighter who survived for over a decade in Afghan caves and enjoys the support of a worldwide network of followers and tens of million of dollars in financial resources.
Of the two, analysts believe it will be easier to find Hussein, who is likely confined to a smaller region and who is not accustomed to life on the run. During his rule, Hussein showered largess on Tikrit, where the people have a more favorable view of him than do the Kurds or the Shiites.
Currently, about 160,000 coalition forces members are stationed in Iraq, including 148,000 U.S. troops.