Posted on 07/21/2003 8:04:31 AM PDT by Lazamataz
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 10:14 AM ET July 21, 2003
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. leading economic indicators point to a better economy in the second half of the year, the Conference Board said Monday.
The index of leading indicators rose 0.1 percent in June after soaring a revised 1.1 percent in May. It's the third straight increase in the index, which is designed to forecast economic performance six to nine months in advance.
"This suggests that the flat trend in the leading index over the past year may have ended, but additional months of growth are needed to determine if an upward trend has indeed developed," the board said. Read more.
The indictors "are suggesting a better economic performance in the second half," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the board. "Even if better growth develops in the third quarter, it could be the first quarter of 2004 before the labor markets really improve."
Economists were expecting the index to rise 0.2 percent in June, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
Four of the 10 indicators rose in June, led by money supply, stock prices, jobless claims and building permits.
Four other indicators fell, led by consumer expectations, vendor performance, interest rate spreads and orders for consumer goods. Two indicators, core capital goods orders and the factory workweek, were unchanged.
"Business investment in equipment and inventory restocking were the missing ingredients so far this year," Goldstein said. "The U.S. economy will not grow by more than 2 percent in the second half of 2003 unless this investment rises."
The coincident index rose 0.1 percent and the lagging index fell 0.5 percent in June.
Over the past six months, the leading index is up 0.5 percent, with three of the 10 indicators improving.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of CBS.MarketWatch.com.
However, Willie still can focus on the 300,000 people out of work. It's the beauty of being a negative economic news doomsayer. Somebody always is losing their job, even in a robust economy.
In 1905, he could have posted articles about buggy drivers getting sacked.
Now that's funny! Still, though I don't pretend to be an economic swuftie, other than 'interest rate spreads' which means little to me, those three falling don't sound so good to me.
Four other indicators fell, led by consumer expectations, vendor performance, interest rate spreads and orders for consumer goods
Nope, checked again and it just dropped straight down. Maybe because the market was expecting .2 and instead got .1.
I don't even pretend to know what goes on there on Wall Street. :-)
FMCDH
If a tree falls in the woods . . .
(Snobby French accent) Of course not, you silly American.
Richard W.
Cool!
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