Capitol road paved with no intentions? Dems loyal enough to Davis to let state go?

LA Daily News ^ | 7/20/03 | Chris Weinkopf

[NormsRevenge]

There's a popular myth, duly repeated in most news accounts, about the effort to recall California Gov. Gray Davis: The state's most prominent Democrats have "ruled themselves out" as potential gubernatorial replacements should the effort succeed.

That's not what the politicians themselves say.

While elected Democrats are all on record as opposing recall, they've been more circumspect about their ambitions. Politicians are a self-seeking group; few, if any, would pass up the opportunity to become governor just so Davis can hang on to the job.

True to form, the state's top Democrats are keeping their options open. Just look at their no-run statements -- and note the rampant use of that favorite political weasel word, "intend."

Attorney General Bill Lockyer says, "I do not intend to submit my name as a candidate."

"I intend to remain a United States senator," swears Sen. Dianne Feinstein, "I do not intend to run for governor."

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante shares the same intentions: "I do not intend to put my name on that ballot."

Ditto for Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi: "I have no intention of running should the recall qualify."

"I do not intend" must be the most carefully parsed phrasing since "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." It's a nondenial denial. The conveyed meaning -- I won't run for governor -- is undermined by the literal one, namely, I don't plan to run for governor.

Plans, of course, can change at a moment's notice.

Only two of the state's six top Democrats have made stronger statements against the prospect of running:

Treasurer Phil Angelides hangs on to the "intend" escape clause, saying, "I do not intend to run in the recall election." But he's also vowed, "I do not intend, nor will I consider , running in this recall election" (emphasis added) -- a far more powerful statement, albeit one that still provides an inch or two of wiggle room.

Then there's Controller Steve Westly, whose office issued a statement declaring that "he will not run for governor this year should a recall qualify for the state ballot." That's a solid commitment, although it would have been a lot more so had the words come directly from the noncandidate's mouth.

But none of the state's most prominent Democrats is willing to say, without equivocation, I will not run against Davis. Even if recall makes the ballot, even if the governor's popularity rating plunges into single digits, even if California goes bankrupt and its assets are auctioned off on eBay, I'll quietly stay on the sidelines and watch my party and my state go down in flames.

They won't part with their senses -- or their ambitions -- so easily.

All six of the state's top Democrats have either run for governor before, or make no bones about their plans to do so in the future. If the governor's office were there for the taking, it's hard to imagine any of them passing it up.

That said, they do have some powerful motivations not to run. Public-employee unions, which control the Democratic Party's purse strings, have decided that Davis is their man. No elected Democrat wants to risk alienating labor's support on the crap shoot of a recall race, where, in a crowded field, a single candidate needs only a plurality -- not a majority -- to win the day.

But the quirkiness of the recall dynamic is a double-edged sword.

If anyone can win a recall race, then so can Bustamante, who has far less campaign cash than the other Democrats he might have to face were he to wait until 2006. So, for that matter, can Garamendi, who's already lost two conventional campaigns for governor.

And if these second-tier Democrats were to enter the race, the bigger names, like Lockyer and Feinstein, might also want to join in.

Then there's political pragmatism: If Davis loses the recall election and no Democrats run to succeed him, the party forfeits the governorship to the GOP. Are Democratic officials willing to take that kind of gamble on a governor with a 21 percent approval rating?

That seems unlikely.

For prominent Democrats, the calculation changes as soon as recall actually makes the ballot. Then they must decide whether it's better to risk going down on Davis' sinking ship, or to cast him overboard and chart a new course. They'll make that decision knowing that, in a heavily Democratic state, whichever Democrat enters the race instantly becomes the odds-on favorite to win.

That incentive alone could change a few candidates' "intentions."

[SierraWasp]

Maybe you don't remember Local 1's fervor over prop 226 and how they were calling everyone here in our county. While they were calling folks here in my district, they said, "Oh, by the way, while you're voting against 226, we have a candidate for Supervisor we've endorsed we'd like you to vote for, as well." I was the only county elected official challenged in that election by a former Local 1 employee right after "The Year of The Woman," and it worked like a well orchestrated charm.

"breakem," nice job on that cartoon thread tonight!!! I get the feeling you live in the region the Sacto Bee calls "Superior California." Am I correct?

[breakem]

17 years in Sac, but socal before then and currently.