Posted on 07/18/2003 4:54:43 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
Throw in 1st Cav. ROK strength is about 600,000, well trained, U.S. equipped. Their air force ain't bad either. Theoretically we could throw in 2 USMC divisions, but it would probably be just one.
PDRK is equipped mostly with older Soviet junk. Without major help from China, they would likely run out of gas two weeks in. The only big question is whether it would go nuclear.
(But if he is overseas that long, I'll be surprised.)
Before he signed the papers, he was pretty clear about what might be expected, so he will do the job. And if any reporter tries to hooraw him while he is there, some network will need a proctologist to retrieve their microphone.
PDRK is a dying nation that is approaching the point where it must either expand or collapse. It's really a question of how much China is willing to prop them up. They're certainly full of bluster and threats in hope of gaining concession from the west. The billion dollar question is... How much of it is idle threat, and how much of it is real threat?
It seems farfetched that they'd be so stupid as to think they could say "Give us what we want, or we'll nuke you," we don't give them what they want, and then they commit a nuclear first strike. Surely they understand this would mean the large scale incineration of their country. Yet they make these threats nonetheless.
I can't see that we're "gearing up" for it, but we are holding units in reserve in case something happens. If it weren't for the Korean situation, 3 ID would have already been relieved by one of these units. Standard U.S. strategy for Korea goes something like the 1st Korean War... If PDRK attacks, ROK + 2 ID and our air units in the region slow down their advance while ground reinforcements and air and sea power are brought to Korea. It is a war that North Korea will lose without Chinese help, the only question is what the cost to us will be. And China is less likely to intervene than they were fifty years ago due to their close trade association with the United States. It's not out of the question that the ROK and U.S. ground forces on the peninsula are capable of defeating PDRK with perhaps only some additional airpower. While PDRK Army is large and determined, it's equipment is outdated and fuel supply precarious. Ditto for their Air Force, but it's equipment is older, if anything. Their Navy isn't much to brag about.
In the end it all comes down to China.
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