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THAT URANIUM STORY
NRO ^ | 7/14/2003 | David Frum

Posted on 07/14/2003 8:59:22 PM PDT by Utah Girl

On the ground floor of the White House is the Map Room, so-called because it was here that Franklin Roosevelt used to get his briefings on the progress of World War II. Over the mantel is the last map FDR saw before his death. It shows American, British, and Soviet troops racing toward Berlin. It also shows a frightening concentration of German forces in the Nazis’ last redoubt, the mountains of Bavaria.

We now know of course that this last redoubt did not exist. American intelligence had been deceived. And it’s possible that policymakers also deceived themselves. Roosevelt, for reasons of his own, wanted to let the Russians have the honor – and suffer the losses – of an assault on Berlin. The belief in the last redoubt was a very useful belief: It justified FDR’s wish to avoid joining the battle for Berlin.

Intelligence is a very uncertain business. And there’s no doubt that consumers of intelligence tend to be quicker to accept uncertain information that confirms their prejudices than uncertain information that calls those prejudices into question. Since consumers of intelligence are usually prejudiced in favor of doing little, most of the time they prefer intelligence that errs on the side of minimizing dangers.

9/11 changed the way American officials looked at the world. So when they got reports that Iraq was seeking to buy uranium in Niger, you can understand why they took the information seriously. That information has since turned out to be false – and its falsity has generated a major political controversy, as bitter-end opponents of this president and the war on terror try to exploit the administration’s error.

The controversy turns on the fact that some in the CIA doubted the story from the start. Their warnings were apparently disregarded, that is assuming that they were adequately communicated in the first place. Why? One reason may be that the CIA’s warnings on Iraq matters had lost some of their credibility in the 1990s. The agency was regarded by many in the Bush administration as reflexively and implacably hostile to any activist policy in Iraq. Those skeptics had come to believe that the agency was slanting its information on Iraq in order to maneuver the administration into supporting the agency’s own soft-line policies.

So when the Bush administration got skeptical news on the Niger uranium matter, it would not be surprising if mid-level policymakers mentally filed it under the heading “more of the same from the CIA,” filed it, and discounted it. The tendency was redoubled by the origin of the Niger-debunking report: Joseph C. Wilson. For more about him, see Clifford May's important post in last week's NRO. The result was the strange formulation in the State of the Union speech, in which the Niger story was cited – but attributed to British intelligence.

The story is an embarrassment for all concerned. But it no more undercuts the case for the Iraq war than FDR’s mistake in 1945 retroactively discredited the case for World War II. The United States did not overthrow Saddam Hussein because he was buying uranium in Niger. It overthrow him because he was a threat to the United States, to his neighbors, to his own people, and to the peace of a crucial region of the globe. All of that is just as true as it was on the day the President delivered his speech containing the errant 16 words – and the war is just as right and justified today as it was then.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: britsstandbystory; cia; davidfrum; frostedyellowcake; intelligence; josephwilson; mycousinknowsclay; niger; opus; sotu; uranium; wmd
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To: eyespysomething
"If the spending for defense, or homeland security, or something related to the War on Terror needs to be raised, then great. Do it. But CUT SOMETHING ELSE!!! Don't just keep piling up on the budget."

Agreed,and I can think of a number of things that I think should be cut, e.g. the endowment for the arts. I've lobbied my representatives on that issue. If we all did that, it would make a difference. (I would imagine there are many on this thread who are whining about the increased spending that haven't bothered to do that.)

181 posted on 07/15/2003 7:25:02 AM PDT by MEGoody
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To: MEGoody
Yes, Bush did sign spending increases for homeland security, et al. In light of the continuing threat of terrorism, I'd say it was a wise move.

I have no problem with deficit spending if it is directly related to national defense and other areas have been cut as well. But both you and I know there is far more than that going on here.

182 posted on 07/15/2003 7:25:30 AM PDT by dirtboy (Not enough words in FR taglines to adequately describe the dimensions of Hillary's thunderous thighs)
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To: MEGoody
And just for the record, please cite one spending bill he has vetoed since taking office?
Hehehehe this is gonna be good.
Sounds like the whirling sound of a Vortex starting to build. LOL
183 posted on 07/15/2003 7:25:37 AM PDT by Area51
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To: dirtboy
"Uh, it would be nice if he used it occasionally. And quit promoting spending increases. And quit caving to the Dems on spending issues."

What specific spending increases could he have vetoed without vetoing other important legislation at the same time? (As you know, most spending bills ride the coattails of other legislation. Wish we ould get a line item veto passed.)

184 posted on 07/15/2003 7:26:58 AM PDT by MEGoody
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To: MEGoody
anyone who thinks a President can simply keep vetoing everything that comes across his desk is politically naive.

I think you'd be surprised how much power even the threat of veto has..

Or perhaps how much power someone willing to let the government shut down for a few weeks rather than sign a pork-laden entitlement program has.

Excuses are a dime a dozen.

But they don't change a thing.

Character, principle, and integrity do.

185 posted on 07/15/2003 7:27:47 AM PDT by OWK
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To: MEGoody
What specific spending increases could he have vetoed without vetoing other important legislation at the same time? (As you know, most spending bills ride the coattails of other legislation. Wish we ould get a line item veto passed.)

Veto the whole damn thing and send it back. But instead, Bush is egging them on to spend more.

186 posted on 07/15/2003 7:28:09 AM PDT by dirtboy (Not enough words in FR taglines to adequately describe the dimensions of Hillary's thunderous thighs)
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To: Area51
"And just for the record, please cite one spending bill he has vetoed since taking office?"

I do not know of any. Do you know of any he could have vetoed without also vetoing other important legislation?

187 posted on 07/15/2003 7:28:36 AM PDT by MEGoody
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To: Miss Marple
No naming names. I am not getting into personal attacks; ditboy didn't name names, and neither will I.

I will not be baited into acting in a manner inconsistent with the wishes of the owner of this forum.

177 posted on 07/15/2003 7:22 AM PDT by Miss Marple

-------------------------

Right, instead you do the baiting yourself, with insinuations!
How sincere of you.

188 posted on 07/15/2003 7:29:29 AM PDT by Area51
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To: Dane
I will wait for your JPEG or Gif of Ronald Reagan in tar and feathers.

That's even better Dane, although Reagan had to deal with a Dem House. Bush has no such constraint.

189 posted on 07/15/2003 7:29:46 AM PDT by dirtboy (Not enough words in FR taglines to adequately describe the dimensions of Hillary's thunderous thighs)
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To: MEGoody
The president ACTIVELY LOBBIED for free prescription drugs for seniors.

Yet another socialist entitlement.

This wasn't a case of pork buried in another bill.

This was what HE asked for.

Let's cut the pretense.

190 posted on 07/15/2003 7:30:16 AM PDT by OWK
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To: dirtboy
"Veto the whole damn thing and send it back."

Yes, that would be great. And of course, the Dems would then use the other 'important legislation' I mentioned as ammo against Bush. Very politically smart. . .give your enemies ammunition.

191 posted on 07/15/2003 7:30:25 AM PDT by MEGoody
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To: OWK
"The president ACTIVELY LOBBIED for free prescription drugs for seniors."

Were you SURPRISED by that? He talked about that when he was campaigning for President.

192 posted on 07/15/2003 7:31:17 AM PDT by MEGoody
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To: MEGoody
Do you know of any he could have vetoed without also vetoing other important legislation?

Every one.

They are only linked, because a GOP majority congress in both houses, allowed it to be so.

193 posted on 07/15/2003 7:31:41 AM PDT by OWK
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To: MEGoody
Yes, that would be great. And of course, the Dems would then use the other 'important legislation' I mentioned as ammo against Bush. Very politically smart. . .give your enemies ammunition.

So, in other words, the GOP is no longer willing to stand up for its principles and take its positions to the people and let them decide, and instead they'll just cave in to the Dems.

Yeah, that's a VERY compelling reason to vote for the GOP next year.

194 posted on 07/15/2003 7:31:50 AM PDT by dirtboy (Not enough words in FR taglines to adequately describe the dimensions of Hillary's thunderous thighs)
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To: OWK
"Character, principle, and integrity do."

As you define them, of course. LOL

195 posted on 07/15/2003 7:32:28 AM PDT by MEGoody
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To: MEGoody
Were you SURPRISED by that? He talked about that when he was campaigning for President.

And this is a GOOD thing?

196 posted on 07/15/2003 7:32:40 AM PDT by OWK
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To: MEGoody
As you define them

Clearly somebody has to.

197 posted on 07/15/2003 7:33:19 AM PDT by OWK
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To: dirtboy
"So, in other words, the GOP is no longer willing to stand up for its principles and take its positions to the people and let them decide, and instead they'll just cave in to the Dems."

What do you mean 'no longer'. When did they ever? Politics is politics. It's an ugly business, but the alternatives are less palatable.

198 posted on 07/15/2003 7:33:22 AM PDT by MEGoody
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To: MEGoody
Were you SURPRISED by that? He talked about that when he was campaigning for President.

I voted for him DESPITE that, not because of it.

199 posted on 07/15/2003 7:33:39 AM PDT by dirtboy (Not enough words in FR taglines to adequately describe the dimensions of Hillary's thunderous thighs)
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To: MEGoody
"And just for the record, please cite one spending bill he has vetoed since taking office?"

I do not know of any. Do you know of any he could have vetoed without also vetoing other important legislation?


187 posted on 07/15/2003 7:28 AM PDT by MEGoody




The department of Education Bill for one.
The Tax cut makes two.

The rest of your argument is a strawman.
YOu don't sign a bill that costs 600 Million because you want to spend 10 million.
200 posted on 07/15/2003 7:34:18 AM PDT by Area51
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