MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING: Iran's Missile Muscle Fuels Fear in Jerusalem, Navy Looks to Lasers

AFPC Missile Defense Briefing ^ | July 14, 2003 | Ilan Berman, ed.

[bruinbirdman]

NAVY LOOKS TO LASERS
The U.S. Navy is eyeing a significant expansion of its work in countering ballistic and cruise missile threats, the July 8th Aerospace Daily reports. Capt. Roger McGinnis, who heads the Navy's directed energy weapons program, tells the Daily that his office is seeking increased funding for ship-based laser weapons, including approximately $150 million over four years to fund development of a solid state laser for Navy vessels. McGinnis also said that the Navy hopes for greater funding to enable expanded work on free electron laser technology and a proposed test center for maritime directed energy weapons in Hawaii.

IRAN'S MISSILE MUSCLE FUELS FEARS IN JERUSALEM...
Following its recent, successful flight test, Iran's "Shahab-3" intermediate-range ballistic missile is now poised for induction into the country's armed forces, Reuters and Iran's Voice of the Islamic Republic radio both reported on July 7th. Speaking to reporters in the wake of the missile trial, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi, indicated that the test was a "final" one and "carried out for its delivery to the armed forces."

In Israel, this news has generated new fears about the threat posed by the Islamic Republic. "We are very concerned, especially since we know that Iran is seeking to acquire the nuclear weapon," government spokesman Avi Pazner told the Agence France Presse on July 7th. "Everything must be done to prevent Iran from acquiring the nuclear weapon. The combination of the Shahab-3 and the nuclear weapon would be a very serious threat on the stability of the region." Still, Israeli officials are confident in their own defensive capabilities. In a July 8th interview with Ga'alei Zahal (IDF) Radio, Arye Herzog, head of the country's Homa Missile Defense Program, expressed certainty that Israel is "fully capable of dealing with whatever the Iranians have today, which is the Shihab-3." However, Herzog conceded that Israel currently lacks the capability to counter Iran's longer-range "Shahab-4" missile, which he claimed is already in development by the Islamic Republic.

..AND WORRIES IN THE GULF
Iran's Persian Gulf neighbors are also taking notice of its expanding capabilities. Middle East Newsline (July 10) reports that the United Arab Emirates has stepped up its search for low- and medium-tier missile defenses capable of protecting against regional threats like the Iranian "Shahab-3." Abu Dhabi, which has traditionally had a contentious relationship with Tehran, is said to be currently assessing both the Russian S-400 "Triumph" and the U.S. PAC-3 systems, and could make a decision as early as next year.

MOSCOW-WASHINGTON COOPERATION INCHES FORWARD
The United States and Russia have yet to realize the broad agenda for missile defense cooperation envisioned by Presidents Bush and Putin in St. Petersburg back in June. However, bilateral work is moving forward on at least one important project. Itar-TASS (July 10) reports that a joint early-warning and notification center designed to track ballistic missile launches will be commissioned in Moscow early next year. Lt.-Gen. Vasily Lata, an advisor to Russia's Political Studies Centre, tells the news agency that the final touches are currently being put on the new facility, which is expected to house both Russian and American experts once online. Once online, the center's main task will be "to prevent the provision of false information warning of a missile launch (including within the framework of an act of terrorism) and to make a realistic assessment of the situation which is taking shape regarding missiles and the expanses of space," Lata explains.

NEW LIFE FOR INDIA'S ARROW QUEST
India's opposition to the U.S.-led war against Iraq has chilled recent dialogue with Washington, and put its efforts to acquire the Arrow theater missile defense system on hold. Now, U.S. approval for a sale of the jointly-developed Israeli-American system to New Delhi appears to have once again become a possibility. The July 10th edition of India's Financial Express reports that the United States -- deeply involved in post-war reconstruction and stability operations in Iraq -- has revived talks of a sale of the Arrow system, desired by New Delhi as a defense against rival Islamabad, as a quid pro quo for an Indian deployment of 15,000-20,000 peacekeeping troops to northern Iraq.

[anotherview]

Six months before the war in Iraq Israeli intelligence reports stated that Saddam Hussein was contained and that the real threat was Iran. The United States chose to ignore this. Now it turns out that Saddam may not have had huge stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons after all, and the U.S. finally sees the threat in Iran. The question becomes: will the U.S. do anything about it? If Israel decides it must act as it did against the Iraqi nuclear program, will the U.S. back Israel or condemn and sanction the Jewish State?

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[dark_lord]

Israel has a bunch of nukes. They know how to protect them so that if Israel gets nuked by Iran, they can retaliate. Iran knows this, ergo they will (probably) not nuke Israel. The USSR never nuked the US because they knew that no matter what, the US could paste them right back. So they didn't.

And no matter what Israel wants, if Iran is stealthy enough they will eventually have their own nukes. Pakistan has them already, after all. So....Israel just has to make sure that it can absorb a 1st strike and still be able to respond lethally. Anything else is wishful thinking.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Saddam Hussein was contained and that the real threat was Iran.

It may have escaped your notice that Iraq shares a long border with Iran and unlike Afghanistan is not land locked and can therefore be supplied without asking permission from Pakhistan. Our tactical and strategic position visa a visa Iran has never been stronger.

[bruinbirdman]

"Israeli intelligence reports stated that Saddam Hussein was contained and that the real threat was Iran. "

If I recall correctly, the U.S. has troops flanking Iran on both the eastern and western fronts as I speak. Pretty good stragery, wouldn't you say?

yitbos

[American in Israel]

Iran knows this, ergo they will (probably) not nuke Israel.

The "(probably)" part is what bugs me, people that are crazy enough to strap explosives on their own children are not deterred by MAD.

[Paul Ross]

Ping. Technology update.