What factual polling data supports your estimate?
You don't need polling data, look at the turnout in other recalls. That's the most "factual" data you can find. If you are smart you will extrapolate useful numbers from these high-Republican districts like I did that can be loosely applied elsewhere.
Add to that the long-simmering hatred of Davis, and the way Dems can't stand him either and you have a recipe for the most collasal gop/conservative landslide in memory.
This ticket-splitting fear and hysteria in 1995 landed a whole bunch of people in court who frantically tried to recruit a 2nd Dem candidate to run against Scott Baugh in the Allen recall. In the end it was all a waste of time as there were enough Rep votes to go around for 4 or 5 candidates against a single Dem.