Simon Loyalists Say E-Mail Dirty Trick Backfired

Los Angeles Times ^ | 7/14/03 | Patt Morrison

[TheAngryClam]

There's a difference.

Reagan ran a good campaign in 1976. Simon ran a terrible one in 2002.

[TheAngryClam]

There's a difference.

Reagan ran a good campaign in 1976. Simon ran a terrible one in 2002.

[research99]

RE: "If Reagan can't manage a campaign, how can he manage a country, right???"

If that's the best exapmple you've got, then maybe Simon's your man.

In 1976, Reagan nearly cost an incumbent President the nomination of his own party -- that's a significant success. (Although the Arlen Specter VP offer was sad).

But you can read the other's comments, as to how Simon took a race that should have been won and lost it!!

[TheAngryClam]

There's talk about a "nominating" convention for the recall, probably at the fall party convention.

The state party delegates trend conservative.

Draw whatever conclusions you'd like from that.

[ElkGroveDan]

Don't split the GOP vote by running a proven loser like Simon, OK then how about:

Don't split the GOP vote by running a proven loser like Issa, or

Don't split the GOP vote by running a proven loser like McClintock

Don't split the GOP vote by running a proven loser like Riordan

Don't split the GOP vote by running a proven loser like Jones

So who's left? Arnold? fat chance the base will turn out for that gun-grabbing, homo-loving, baby-killer.

Everyone needs to calm down. The way this thing will play out, four times as many Reps (or people who vote for Reps) will wind up voting on the candidate part of this ballot. The last thing we want to do is narrow down the field and give Davis one target to demonize which has been his proven strategy time after time over the years.

One candiate will come out on top and it will be a Republican. I also believe that it will be apparent as the election draws to a close and everyone can throw their support behind a clear front runner.

[research99]

A state party nomination, at a fall convention, would cost valuable weeks of time (presuming the election is held in Novenber).

The stakes are high enough that clowns like B.S. are starting to come out -- it's certainly worth it to convene an August meeting, to officially get the party mobilized in one direction.

[TheAngryClam]

I agree it's late.

They'd probably move the date up, but call it the "fall convention" anyway.

[research99]

RE: "The way this thing will play out, four times as many Reps (or people who vote for Reps) will wind up voting on the candidate part of this ballot."

What factual polling data supports your estimate?

[TheAngryClam]

Which won't be Bill Simon, you know.

[nickcarraway]

Simon was running fine in the primary. But in the general election, he didn't do as well. But part of the problem was that he got horrible advice from the state party, and he got very little support. The main reason people criticize his efforts is that he is ``too conservative.'' He played along with the state party and hid his conservatism, and look where it got him. A lot of candidates over the years lose an election, and then learn to get it right. Reagan learned a lot in '76, so he could come back and win in '80. The thing I don't understand why the New York Times gets to decide the official position of California Republicans?

The thing you have to remember is that whoever the next GOP candidate is, is going to have to deal with the same Davis dirty tricks and media bashing that Simon faced. So we can keep running different candidates each election, and they will get the same treatment. I'm not saying that Simon should definitely be the candidate but he does have one advantage- he already got slimed by Davis- so if he runs again, all those problems are ancient history and the electorate is more likely to ignore them. With someone like Issa, it's going to be the primary focus.

Having said all that, all Republicans have to address the fact that Simon probably would have won the election without the illegal voter fraud. If Republicans can't stop that, all their candidates might be sunk.

[research99]

I forsee just what B.S. says he doesn't want:

A group of (paid off) insiders like the minions of Sal Russo, making backroom deals to place B.S. on the ballot.

I think spending his money is the Only way B.S. could get fall election support.

If B.S. had a conscience, he'd get behind Issa, who put his own money up to make sure this Recall happened.

[nickcarraway]

(3) Select one candidate by means of open discussion and a delegate (or acclamation) vote at a Summer convention.

I agree with you here. We should select one candidate. But Simon should be included in the mix with McClintock. If he's such a poor candidate, why are you afraid of having him there. Simon has the advantage of having experience in the last election. From that he also has the advantage of surving being trashed. McClintock would be a great candidate. i just don't want to end up with Riordan.

[ElkGroveDan]

What factual polling data supports your estimate?

You don't need polling data, look at the turnout in other recalls. That's the most "factual" data you can find. If you are smart you will extrapolate useful numbers from these high-Republican districts like I did that can be loosely applied elsewhere.

Add to that the long-simmering hatred of Davis, and the way Dems can't stand him either and you have a recipe for the most collasal gop/conservative landslide in memory.

This ticket-splitting fear and hysteria in 1995 landed a whole bunch of people in court who frantically tried to recruit a 2nd Dem candidate to run against Scott Baugh in the Allen recall. In the end it was all a waste of time as there were enough Rep votes to go around for 4 or 5 candidates against a single Dem.

[nickcarraway]

Then what are you afraid of?

[research99]

Nick,

I really can't agree with your perspective.

You haven't mentioned, that the reason Simon ran well in the primary, was the blanket run of campaign ads featuring the Giuliani endorsement, and the $10 million assist provided him (courtesy of Gary South and Davis' campaign contributors).

Bottom Line: If Simon were a true leader, there would have been a consistent, winning, message from his campaign for the general election. There wasn't.

Again, I ask: "If Simon can't manage a campaign, how can he manage the state"???

[TheAngryClam]

Simon didn't sling mud back because he was a wuss.

Finally, when he did, he didn't even bother to send one of his interns over to make sure that the office in the photo really was the Lt. Governor's office.

Furthermore, you don't need to be a strategic genius to realize that an ongoing fraud lawsuit has the potential to make you look really bad. That he didn't settle that lawsuit (not to mention that he decided to invest in payphones right as cellular telephones were becoming ubiquitous) shows almost zero foresight.

Furthermore, Simon faced money problems the whole time. He kept boasting about how he was made of money and ready to spend it. That never materialized. If you want to point blame for lack of $$$, look no further than Simon himself.

And, don't forget, bad advice is only as damning as the trust you place in it. Once again, Simon's ultimately at fault.

The facts are plain: Bill Simon ran a horrible campaign, and lost an election that the Republicans should have had in the bag. The NYT has nothing to do with this. It is Bill Simon's, and his advisors like Sal Russo's, fault. No one else's.

[ElkGroveDan]

What are you going to do if Bill Simon runs and Sal ISN'T his consultant?

[TheAngryClam]

That Dan's prediction doesn't come true, that a 5-10% holdout votes for that loser, and because of that, we get Governor Bustamonte, Governor Lockyer, Governor Schwarzenegger, Governor Riordan, or Governor Feinstein.

Splitting the conservative vote by an inept candidate = very, very bad.

[TheAngryClam]

He didn't survive being trashed.

He got smoked.

And including him just means that Davis doesn't have to spend money on opposition research. He just needs to wander over to the file cabinet and pull out all the ammunition that Simon handed him throughout his bumbling campaign.

[TheAngryClam]

Wasn't that the same line that Simon used to claim that he'd win in 2002?

It would have worked too, except for the fact that he blew it.