Another Political Earthquake: The Gray Davis recall looks like a Prop 13 replay

The Weekly Standard ^ | 07/21/03 | Fred Barnes

[Pokey78]

Sacramento
THE MEDIA and political establishment in California hasn't learned a thing in 25 years. In 1978, the Los Angeles Times editorialized sternly against the fiscal drain and "chaotic effects" of Proposition 13, the referendum that cut property taxes deeply and touched off an anti-tax wave across the country. Now, faced with a referendum to toss Democratic governor Gray Davis out of office, the newspaper is warning against the "deeper fiscal hole and the partisan political chaos" that may result. A quarter century ago, the San Francisco Chronicle declared Proposition 13 "a revolutionary threat, a total threat, to the stability of all government." Likewise, the recall drive is abetting "the dysfunction" of state government. "It's reckless, it's outrageous," the Chronicle insists. Democratic party leaders, who dominate California politics, and politically connected elements of the business community say the same thing. "We can't tolerate the chaos," Warren Christopher, the secretary of state under President Clinton and now a Los Angeles lawyer, said.

These arguments aren't working any better now than they did in 1978. The recall effort, like Proposition 13, has risen above its origins on the political fringe and become a populist crusade. This has happened in eight months. Davis was elected to a second term as governor last November, petitions began to circulate in February, and by early July far more than the 897,158 signatures needed to put the recall on the ballot had been collected. The political impact isn't clear, since Davis may fight the recall in court, and, assuming he loses, the vote may not be held until next March. But Democrats are apoplectic and Republicans are hopeful. Already there's growing anecdotal evidence of increased Republican voter registration in California.

The revolt is not simply against Davis. It's against "a political class horribly disconnected from the rest of California," columnist Daniel Weintraub wrote in the Sacramento Bee. "Statewide leaders live in a cocoon where interest group money and political strategists are the only things that really matter." And because of gerrymandered districts, agreed to by Democrats and Republicans, "legislators either don't have to worry about reelection at all or fear only the small chance that they will be outflanked by a candidate of their own party in the primary." This cozy arrangement could be overturned if Davis is expelled from office and a Republican becomes governor. But even if another Democrat replaces Davis, there are bound to be strong political repercussions. So it's not surprising that the recall, as Weintraub put it, "is driving the ruling class batty."

Democrats have a lot to lose. They have an iron grip on the legislature and such a hold on the electorate that Davis was reelected in 2002 despite being wildly unpopular. President Bush lost California to Al Gore in 2000 by a dozen points, though Gore didn't even bother to campaign in the state. But now Democrats are in charge of a sinking ship.

The recall was triggered when the state budget deficit, which Davis pooh-poohed last fall, soared to $38 billion. Davis has failed to fashion a deficit-reduction compromise with Democrats, who loathe spending cuts, and Republicans, who won't raise taxes. And he bears a large measure of responsibility for the budget problem. In his first two years as governor, spending rose 37 percent. Davis has imposed a hiring freeze, yet 44,000 employees have been added to the state payroll. This year, he tripled the car registration tax by gubernatorial decree, adding roughly $150 to the average Californian's tax bill.

Davis has become the symbol of the state's slide downwards. Unresponsive government, high taxes, traffic congestion, emigration of hundreds of thousands to nearby states, a poor business environment--these top the list of problems. Just last month, California was cited as "the worst performing state" in an analysis of the finances of all 50 states by USA Today. "Today it continues to spend $1 billion a month more than it takes in," the paper said. By one recent measure of test scores--8th grade reading--California's schools are last in the nation. Hence, the feeling that California is broken and the state's political class, especially Davis and his allies, isn't fixing it.

THE RECALL BEGAN with two minor figures, Ted Costa and Howard Kaloogian. From an office behind a Krispy Kreme on the outskirts of Sacramento, Costa runs an outfit called Public Advocate. It seeks to put tax-cutting referendums on the ballot. The point of the recall, he says, is to show that "the people in California do not consent to what the governor and the legislature are doing. This offers to California the opportunity to form a new coalition." Meanwhile, Kaloogian, a former Republican state legislator from San Diego, formed his own committee to recall Davis and began circulating petitions.

Populist revolts normally have such humble origins. But to advance to stage two, a successful crusade must begin to attract mainstream politicians. Republican leaders in Sacramento, however, were cool to the recall, with the exception of state senator Tom McClintock, who said the recall was "the most important issue since Proposition 13." The White House was also leery, figuring Bush would have a better chance of winning California in 2004 if an unpopular Democrat was still governor. The critical defection came in May, when Republican congressman Darrell Issa from the exurbs of southern California signed on, set up a third anti-Davis group called Rescue California, and hired a professional signature-gathering firm. California firms were wary of the recall, so Issa had to recruit a Missouri company. It concentrated on shopping malls, where people, including many Democrats, lined up to sign recall petitions. Within weeks, the required number of signatures--12 percent of voters in the prior statewide election--was exceeded. It cost Issa, who made millions in the car alarm business, roughly $1.3 million and made him a credible candidate to replace Davis.

Davis responded in a way sure to backfire. His allies spread stories about Issa's past, including two arrests for car theft 30 years ago in which charges were dropped. The demonization of Issa also included a videotape of a Los Angeles gun show in 1998 that was circulated to journalists. The tape featured Issa, then running for the U.S. Senate, at a booth, and it showed another booth at which Nazi memorabilia was on display. "Somehow, one assumes, this was supposed to 'prove' that Issa was pro-Nazi or something equally noxious, but it had to be the thinnest piece of political propaganda ever conjured up in California," wrote Dan Walters of the Sacramento Bee. It confirmed Davis's unsavory reputation as a politician who relies heavily on negative attacks--he once likened Democratic senator Dianne Feinstein to Leona Helmsley--and rarely on positive appeals.

Davis's other tack was to keep fellow Democrats, and particularly Feinstein, out of the recall. The ballot will ask two questions: Should Davis be ousted? and, Who should replace him? Issa has said he'll pay the $3,500 and get the 65 signatures required to be on the ballot. He's hired Ken Khachigian, a former Ronald Reagan aide, as his chief political adviser. Peter Camejo, the Green party candidate for governor last fall, says he'll run, too. The Greens, by the way, also collected recall signatures. But the five top Democratic officials under Davis--including Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and Attorney General Bill Lockyer--have joined Feinstein in saying they have no plans to run. Polls show Davis's prospects of winning the recall vote are better if there's no Democratic alternative. Should Feinstein put her name on the ballot, the consensus in the political community is that Davis would be recalled and she would be the next governor.

Which bring us to the Democrats' worst fear--a Republican governor. With no Democrat on the ballot, this would be a distinct possibility. A poll by the Los Angeles Times found that 51 percent favor throwing Davis out of office. And Issa, suddenly a hero to many Republicans, won't be the lone Republican in the race. Bill Simon, who ran a pathetic campaign against Davis last fall but lost by only five points, is likely to run. Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan, whom Simon beat in the Republican gubernatorial primary, is considering a race, perhaps as an independent. Focus groups suggest he'd be a strong candidate. McClintock may also jump in. He led the Republican ticket in 2002 and was defeated for state controller by 16,811 votes out of more than 7 million cast.

And then there's Arnold Schwarzenegger, who, of course, starred in a movie called "Total Recall." He's been grooming himself for the past decade to run in California as a Republican. The gubernatorial recall may have caught him by surprise, as he'd been focusing on a possible bid for 2006. But Schwarzenegger has enlisted some of the state's best political operatives, notably George Gorton, former governor Pete Wilson's top campaign adviser. He appears ready for the short-notice election, where only a plurality is needed to win the governorship. Schwarzenegger spoke at a rally celebrating the twenty-fifth anniversary of Proposition 13, but he is no conservative. At least he's not a social conservative, having described himself recently to another Republican as pro-gay, pro-abortion, and anti-gun.

The big question is how much the recall movement rejuvenates the Republican party in California, if at all. Some party leaders worry the effect may be to replace Davis with a popular Democrat, who then would be reelected easily in 2006. Issa, for one, disagrees. He says a new Democratic governor would have no more success than Davis in corralling Democratic interest groups and legislators to compromise with Republicans on the budget. Of course, a Republican governor might face the same problem with Republicans. Duf Sundheim, the new Republican state chairman, thinks the recall will help the party, which has been standoffish to the recall effort. "We will work actively to get out the vote," he told reporters last week. Sundheim said he'd try to narrow the Republican field to a single consensus candidate. "If we could agree on one candidate, it would be optimal," he said.

The recall gathered momentum on its own and now presents Republicans with a remarkable opportunity. The more they join the effort, the more they will define themselves as the party of reform. For the recall to reach stage three--the fourth stage is victory in the vote--it needs more support from Republican leaders and donors. Then, what Sundheim calls "a surge" for Republicans in the past few months--6,400 new Republicans in San Bernardino County, a 5-1 registration edge in Orange County, major gains in San Diego County--may become a surge in reality. A populist crusade could do for Republicans what they couldn't do for themselves. And the establishment won't know what hit it.

[Publius6961]

No it's not.

[McGavin999]

All they have to do is remind Californians that under Reagan and Wilson the state was the most powerful economy in the nation. Look what happens when you put democrats in power. Last in the nation on test scores, last in the nation in the ability to attract business, first in the nation in deficits.