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If NC has been overrun by northern immigrants from NJ, NY, PA, MD, OH, etc, what makes you think that NC won't go Democrat for senator again, regardless of the candidate? Is there evidence that conservatism is growing or shrinking in NC? Bowles did fairly well in 2002, which turned out to be a bad year for clintoids, though Bill Richardson won handily in liberal NM.

If NC has been overrun by northern immigrants from NJ, NY, PA, MD, OH, etc,

Hey! That's me you're talking about.

what makes you think that NC won't go Democrat for senator again, regardless of the candidate?

The GOP HAS won 75% of senate races since Jesse Helms started out.

Is there evidence that conservatism is growing or shrinking in NC?

Hard to say, conservatism is probably shrinking a little, but Republicanism is still growing. Still LOTS of conservative Dems.

Bowles did fairly well in 2002

His loss was the most lopsided senate contest in NC since -- well, I don't know, a long time. He got more votes than Edwards in #s but only 45%. He even lost his native Mecklenburg County (Charlotte & friends). That being said, he ran fairly well and was cursed with a late primary. He'll have less establishment/money support this year, though, as a couple key supporters have switched over to Burr.

Richard Burr may even be unopposed in the primary; he's a consensus candidate, and a wicked good one. A conservative who smiles pretty for the soccer moms.

" Is there evidence that conservatism is growing or shrinking in NC?"

My experience in a 14 county territory within the middle of the state has been that outside of the metropolitan areas, Edwards is mocked by the conservative democrats that comprise a large population.

The die hard liberals that make up the city cores, academic areas and lower income neighborhoods are the ones who are yellow dog democrats.

If NC has been overrun by northern immigrants from NJ, NY, PA, MD, OH, etc
Having lived in N.C. most all my adult life, I don't thing the state is overrun with those folks.

But, even so, opie's win was a fluke.

He used his fraudulently populist message to run against a Senator that was not well liked by either party, and a Senator that carried a ton of baggage.

There has been enough bad press; r.e., opie's absence from doing his job as a N.C. Senator that any Dem will have a tough time winning the general election.