| A Recall AND a Fundraiser? I'm toast. |
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| Let's get this over with FAST. Please contribute! |
Posted on 07/09/2003 1:32:07 PM PDT by Steven W.
| A Recall AND a Fundraiser? I'm toast. |
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| Let's get this over with FAST. Please contribute! |
The problem with your statement is that Puplava (and most goldbugs) are forecasting inflation or hyperinflation, not deflation. Gold would not be a good investment in a deflationary scenario.
The premise of the article is that there have been many studies that PROVE neither economists nor doom & gloomers alike can predict the economy and to listen to such fools is, well, foolish!
Guess that makes me a "Puplava goldbug influenced hysteric". Oh well.
Maybe - a primary symptom I've observed is that they don't pay attention either! ROFLMAO!
Nice trick & typical obfuscation & deflection - goldbugs are interested in creating fear & particuarly uncertainty with regards to inflationary pressures on currency values. Simply stated, there is nothing to judge the value of gold by other than the values of the currencies for which it's traded and the degree of fear which can be instilled within potential buyers to try and raise the price, given the uses for gold, outside making jewelry, decrease significantly year after year. Thus the goldbug's are dedicated to exploiting any "news" or hyped-hysteria in any way they can to scare investors and try and persuade those (like other poster, above) who don't understand the true risks or rewards in things that gold is a good investment when - to the contrary - over time, it's never, ever been able to keep up with inflation.
At this point we're seeing interesting behavior in the markets, almost an exact inverse of the stupidity that brought such suffering to so many speculators in 2000. While those speculators lost so much on foolish equity investments ala Pets.com, now we have an equally foolish set of folks ready to ride gold & bonds down harder than any earnings-less tech stock, or those who persist in trying to short the market, no matter how much money they continue to lose, just to try and prove they're "right".
That would be foolish. The market won't be properly aligned for general shorting until sometime in the autumn.
Don't go confusing things by using facts. Goldbugs are evil-doers and CNBC shills are the good guys. :-)
Richard W.
"2000 years ago, you could buy 100 loves of bread with an ounce of gold. Today you can buy 100 loaves of bread with an ounce of gold."
Now consider that if you invested the equivilent amount of money in an interest bearing account yeilding 1% per year, today you would have several billion trillion dollars. LOL!
Only two problems with that. All fiat currency systems have failed along with all banks over the last 2000 years. Gold hasn't. LOL!
Richard W.
Ummm.. The gold bug premise is that no interest bearing account of any kind - much less one yielding 1% per annum - would survive a 2000 year period. Do you have an example to the contrary?
PS. I would not advise anyone to invest in gold at the present time, FWIW.
In 1970, gold was $35 / ounce. An ounce bought 350 loaves of bread.
Today, gold is $350 / ounce. It still buys 350 loaves of bread.
You put $35 in a savings account in 1970. You can buy 70 loaves of bread.
Advantage: Gold!
Money, Banking and the Federal Reserve
Richard W.
DOW 7000, NASDAQ 1200.
You can bank on it.
yitbos
For example, this advice:
"While it may be very hard for you to ignore advice that comes from a prominent and intelligent sounding spokesperson -- one who has also provided what seems like a very cogent argument -- that is exactly what you should do."
is absolutely correct. But it applies to both bullish and bearish spokesmen, including the author himself.
Everything said about economists is also right on. And applies just as well to both their bullish and bearish forecasts.
But I do take issue with this canard:
"The important point is that if the market is aware of information, that information is already incorporated into prices, and thus it is too late for investors to benefit from the information -- unless you believe that somehow the market has misinterpreted that information and thus mispriced securities."
First of all, all the market is is a set of options -- people offering to buy or sell things at various prices. "The market" isn't "aware" of anything.
Prices do reflect information. If I buy something, and someone sells it to me, we know that at the time of the trade I valued the thing more than the money, while the seller values the money more than the thing.
And that's all we really know. We never know *why* people value things the way they do when they trade. For all we know, the reason the seller sold to me is that he needed to raise bail money for his no-good brother.
It is reasonable to believe that one of the components of valuation is the aggregate expectation of future changes in the values of the things traded. While one might explain the difference in TIPS and non-protected securities by an implied expectation of inflation, the explanation is an utter guess. As the author notes, the implied inflation rate is (at best) an approximation. And such approximations are always wrong at major trend changes.
"And there is no evidence that even professional investors can persistently benefit from so-called market inefficiencies or mispricings."
This is true. As a class the vast majority of investors cannot, even the professionals.
I'm not sure who his audience is, in the section "what investors need to know". If he has in mind the average investor of today, his message is an exercise in futility. What the average investor of today needs to know is that he ought not to be "investing" at all.
You can bank on it.
Do you mean as the secular bear market floor? I'm thinking Dow 4000, Nasdaq 800.
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