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I live in New Mexico but I have strong ties to Arizona. I probably spend more time in Arizona than NM. I haven't seen anything to contradict these polls. The Rs are carrying a lot of baggage. If Napolitano can run a scandal free administration she will be reelected easily. Jim Pederson bought the election for her last time. He won't need to next time.

McCain is popular and will win any primary and the general easily. He is the titular head of the Republican party and has the highest approval rating.

I don't attribute this to any leadership on the part of the Democrats but the lack of the same by Republicans. Squaw Peak by any other name is still Squaw Peak but Arizona loved her sticking it to the Rs. A Pinto Democrat will always vote Democrat.