Conservatives voted enthusiastically for Gingrich's conservative ideas in 1994, an election in which the GOP did rather well.
Then, in 1998, Gingrich tried a less confrontational, more centrist approach, and almost lost Congress.
What's the lesson here?
Votes that win elections are the medium of exchange in the political marketplace. If one is going to succeed in the business of politics, don't take your customer base for granted, or some of them may take a hike.
Apparently the consensus at GOP think-tanks project a net gain of voters after all the lack of border enforcement, social programs, pandering and -- oh yes -- dismissive condescension towards it's conservative base is played out.
The only way the GOP's "customer base" will ever again seriously influence a presidential campaign in the future is by doing what every other "special interest" does -- creating a tangiable platform, making the "deal," then voting en masse as a political bloc.
Seems to work for everyone else.