Those who are hoping for the worst in Iraq

San Diego Union Tribune ^ | 7/4/2003 | Joseph Perkins

[MEG33]

Thank you for the thoughtful post.

[ArneFufkin]

I don't think your new Iraqi sociopolitical model made it past the "never considered it's so ludicrous" evaluation stage.

Your a feudal kind of guy.

[ArneFufkin]

Do you want someone to come over and click on the link for you?

[MEG33]

If I may hazard my interpretation...He was saying if we retreat into enclaves and turn Iraq over to warlords,etc,Iraq wouldn't have dependable electricity in 5 years.

[ArneFufkin]

You see some value in that program? Sacrificing Iraqis newly liberated from the Hell of the Husseins to a feudal system of regional Warlords and Third World poverty?

That's obscene.

[Burkeman1]

After the 78 day bombing capmpaign in Kosovo and Serbia under Clinton the electricity in Kosovo has never been fully repaired and is intermittent. Many basic public services are not what they had been since the bombing. This is a direct result of Clintonian occupation policy that leaves de facto control of the country to local crime and war lords. Bush may chose to follow the same path in Iraq.

[ArneFufkin]

Burkeman, you're a bright guy and you've been consistent in your philosophy around this campaign .... but .... what in the world would be achieved if Iraq was reformed into the regional feudal governance you've presented?

How are American interests bolstered by that outcome? Not to mention the Iraqis who will now be in terror of "Warlords" and their thuggery.

You think "Warlords" are going to let private entrepreneurs run the oil program while they slaughter oxen and drink goats milk?

[Burkeman1]

Maybe- maybe not. But basic public services are hard to keep up when there is no reliable or strong national government and sections of the Baghdad are ruled by different gangs and crime bosses. This is one way it could go for Iraq if Bush tires of casualties in Iraq. It "worked" for Clinton. I am not saying it is moral. I am just saying it is a proven way to occupy Iraq without casualties and thus avoid domestic political fallout.

[Burkeman1]

See my #48 to MEG33.

[MEG33]

I feel terrible about one death or one wounded.If we retreat from our mission because of lack of will,I will have to rethink going in the first place.We may need to adjust and fine tune but retreat into guarded enclaves is not going to get the job done.The media stirs up all this gloom and doom!

[Burkeman1]

I personally don't think Bush will persue the "Clinton model" of occupation in Iraq. Afghanistan is looking like it on one level but Bush is still trying at least. Clinton never even tried in Kosovo. But politicians are politicians and Bush has an election coming up. And I don't think he planned that well for a postwar Iraq government. It could be tempting to make deals with thugs for "peace" while retreating into rural enclaves.

[ArneFufkin]

There are NO warlords in Iraq with the Baath psychos killed off. This isn't Ethiopia, Afghanistan or Mongolia. This is a highly developed country blessed with oil, agricultural and mineral resources and a strategic port. Iraq can flourish economically, politically and socially.

The Kurds are game. The Shiites are game. The Sunnis are game. A thousand terrorists need to be killed. They will be killed.

This is part of our ongoing war against terror. This is a strategic springboard. You don't agree, that's fine. It's a legitimate issue.

But don't misunderstand the resolve and commitment of our President, military and economic managers to make Iraq a stable bulwark against the Terror Network forever more. This is a checkpoint on the mission.

And, as you and I discussed way back last fall (My December 15 launch date was off a bit), North Korea is going to change or we'll change them. This Hair Club for Men reject fool is threatening our citizens with nuclear attack.

Iraq. Iran. North Korea. That's the life center of the international terror network. They go down, every other Muslim despot starts to revisit their M.O.

If we're lucky, Americans don't die by the tens of thousands in chemical, biological or nuclear attack on our shore again and again. That's the REAL GOAL here, we don't give a crap about Mullahs and Omans and Sheiks and Muftis. We care about Americans. Every thing Bush is making happen is to create a safer world for American citizens in our cities and towns. If the Iraqi people win, if the Iranian people win, the Afghani people win and North Korean people win .... well, that's advantageous for our security and that's just a WIN WIN gumbdrop rainbow outcome.

We're operating at the source of the cancer spread. It's ugly work, it's dangerous and soldiers will die in pursuit of the mission. This is for the survival and prosperous well-being of 270 million of us, so they are not dying in vain.

[MEG33]

The planning for reconstruction and pacification was lacking. I read in some rag we went 2 weeks early and won too quickly to get a handle on it.No one said this would be easy.I don't "approve" lightly the risk of someone else's life.I had misgivings and finally did support invading Iraq.I think if we stay the course it will pay off on many fronts.

[MEG33]

Arne expressed it better!

[Burkeman1]

Well Iraq is different from Kosovo. There are no ready made "warlords" in Iraq to deal with as there were in Kosovo. As for "crimelords" I don't know enough about Iraq as a culture to even guess if there was organized crime. So the "Clinton model" of Kosovo might not even be available to Bush in Iraq. But I suspect local thugs could be found and oral agreements and understandings made rather quickly if need be (ie- you keep any radicals under control by whatever means and leave the pipelines alone and you can do whatever you want in your area of control.)

You place a lot of trust in "planners" and "experts" for our occupation in Iraq to be sucessful. I don't share your optimism in such big government notions- especially in a Islamic hell hole like Iraq.

[ArneFufkin]

MEG, if there is a peace accord somehow between Israel and the Palestinian people, this campaign will have created the opening. With the Iraqi regime gone, Syria no longer gets smuggled UN oil. The Iranian clerics are now fighting for their lives. Syria has no cash. Iran has no free hand to organize and protect the Lebanese and Palestinian based killers. They can't pay the Hizbollah creeps. If Iran and Syria can't function, North Korea and China don't have customers for their missiles, guns and ordinance.

So, Iraq was the fulcrum of Muslim pride and money and it all went to weaponry and intrigue. Cruel but strong psycho daddy's gone now, and the evil Islamist children are in disarray. The Roadmap to Peace has an opening of hope.

[ArneFufkin]

Afghanistan is a hellhole. Iraq was the most powerful nation-state in the Arab World. It will return to that status, but it will be run by human beings. They'll struggle at first, Saddam had no economy absent criminal enterprise under the nose of U.N. dipsticks.

Iraq has the second or third largest oil reserves in the World. It has a well constructed pipeline delivery system. It has a world class oil terminal and a deep water port. It has fertile fields, a strong transportation infrastructure, mineral potential, adequate hospital assets and a hungry and hopeful citizenry who were TERRORIZED by that bastard and his henchmen for 34 years. 34 years in a Gulag more insular that Stalins Soviet Union. Give them a chance to emerge from their life view of imminent death.

Iraq and Iran are NOT Saudi Arabia or the Sudan. They are crouching economic tigers in that region absent dictators and genocide freaks. That's the key to driving the 8th Century murderers into the abyss.

[MEG33]

I realize the Arab Nationalistic pride was invested in Saddam.I am less of an optimist than you,though my hope is there.Money always has away of getting to the thugs.They were caught carting gold bars out of Iraq.How many got through and how much is now in diamonds?Arms merchants are worldwide.I do think there is more hope for peace for Israel but it will be bumpy.Some dictator is always wanting arms and will let his country starve to buy them.

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

That they derive some perverse consolation in the ludicrous notion that the United States suddenly finds itself facing a guerrilla war in Iraq; a quagmire of Vietnam proportions.

There are very few...very few media pukes out there today that would be able to discuss any of the events or timeline of the Vietnam war. They have no clue of what went on and how much it differed from anything we did...and are doing...in Iraq. No clue whatsoever of the history of the country whose teet they suckle at and whose sons and daughters gave their all so that these idiots might continue their "nattering".

[Burkeman1]

You sound hopeful. I am not. Iraq didn't even begin to approach the level of insularity that the Soviet Union did under Stalin. That, I will disagree with. Sadaam didn't even control his borders that well! But Iraq has been isolated and artificially stript of it's various cultures. I suspect they will all seek to be "authentic" again (as many Russians are attempting now with the return to Orthodox Christianity). And that won't mean being "western". I actually hope you are right. But I sadly suspect that I am.