[Dave S]

Sabato has Bush LOSING to every one of these clowns EXCEPT for John F. Kerry, the French-looking candidate. I don't buy it.

You missed the underlying assumption stated on the map, i.e., "assumes a highly competitive election." If the popular vote was tight, then given the proclivities of the various states, he's predicting the individual states.

Sabato said if the election was held today, Bush would win 45 states and over 300 electoral votes. The assumption for the map is that the economy remains in the dumps or gets worse and that Iraq becomes a quagmire. I dont think either of those is likely to occur.

Also if Dean gets the nomination it will make McGovern contest look like that race was competitive.

[lepton]

You missed the underlying assumption stated on the map, i.e., "assumes a highly competitive election." If the popular vote was tight, then given the proclivities of the various states, he's predicting the individual states.

Yep: If the election is close, then the results will be close.