[deport]

Some of the repeat winners going backwards a few cycles...

• 1992 - Clinton .. 49.2% pop.... 379 EC

• 1984 - Reagan .. 58.8% pop.... 525 EC

• 1972 - Nixon .. 60.3% pop.... 520 EC

• 1956 - Eishenhower .. 57.6% pop.... 457 EC

• 1944 - Roosevelt .. 53.3% pop..... 432 EC

So history tells us that if the President is reelected it's done with a fairly large margin.... So if Sabato is correct in his analysis then I'd say President Bush will lose.... But I don't think Sabato is correct...

[GraniteStateConservative]

History is actually more interesting than what you report.

Incumbent presidents running for reelection who faced no significant opposition on the party's New Hampshire ballot have never been defeated for a second term as President (also, as an aside, no incumbent president has ever lost the NH presidential primary). So, if no one steps up to the plate in November 2003 (the filing deadline for the NH primary), the general election is already decided in Bush's favor.

Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, won the primary with 98.9%, after facing no serious opposition.

Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, won the primary with 95.3%, after facing no serious opposition.

Richard M. Nixon in 1972, won the primary with 89.3%, after facing no serious opposition.

Gerald R. Ford in 1976, won the primary with 49.4%, after facing serious opposition from Ronald Reagan.

Jimmy Carter in 1980, won the primary with 47.1%, after facing serious opposition from Ted Kennedy.

Ronald Reagan in 1984, won the primary with 86.1%, after facing no serious opposition.

George H. W. Bush in 1992, won the primary with 53.2%, after facing serious opposition from Patrick Buchanan.

Bill Clinton in 1996, won the primary with 84.4%, after facing no serious opposition.