Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...

Center For Politics ^

[Recovering_Democrat]

Beltway Boys Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracki had Larry Sabato on their show this weekend. He presented this projected Electoral Map for 2004. What do you think? Is he right? Sabato did say if the election were held today, Bush would probably get 330 Electoral votes. He thinks this is what it'll look like in November of '04, though. Any thoughts?

[Howlin]

John Edwards will NOT carry North Carolina.

[Howlin]

Not me!

[Torie]

Splendid. Bush carries what he did last time, except for the home state of the Dem candidate if it was one Bush carried last time, ala NC if Edwards is the candidate. LOL. This must be some April fools joke, except it ain't April, and the publication ain't The Onion.

[marajade]

Which makes me question how Edwards could beat Bush in enough other states to win...

And Bob Graham... didn't they have a poll stating that right now Bush would even beat him in Florida if the two went head to head...

[oceanview]

I agree, a win is a win. given the makeup of the electorate, landslides like Reagan in 84 are impossible now. what happens in the senate races is more important.

[Howlin]

John Edwards will NOT carry North Carolina; bank on it.

[deport]

Bush might as well give up now if Sabato is right...

---

Aw but we have the 'showboy' and his gift coming on board to make the difference..

Actually it may go down that way as the country is very split today... However all the past President's that have been reelected going back to may FDR days had done so with fairly large EC margins, not close as he's projecting.

Even Clinton won with some 379 EC votes and only 49% of the Popular... So if President Bush does win I'd look for it to be much larger than Sabato is projecting.

[BibChr]

If it's that close, even, the country is TOTALLY insane, and incapable of learning anything, and the last person out won't even have to turn the lights out.

Dan

[Lyford]

Does anybody really believe that John Edwards could beat Bush?

I'm sure someone does.

But I sure as hell don't...

[Brilliant]

It depends entirely on who his opponent is. He also stated that if it's Dean, the Dems will lose at least 45 states.

[marajade]

I think the only thing that could cause a Bush loss would be another Perot... and that is very unlikely... and since Nader is considering another run... I really can't see how Bush could lose...

One thing is for sure though... it doesn't matter who is Gov in CA, Davis or Schwartennager (Sp?)... CA will go Dem...

[demlosers]

I recently saw a NY poll that had Bush ahead against all major Rat candidates including Hillary.

[colorado tanker]

This crystal ball is cracked. One example. He has Missouri going for favorite son Lil' Dickie Gephardt, but Lil' Dickie has never won a statewide race in Missouri and most of the state does not like St. Louis liberals. And I betcha that Edwards, like Gore, could not take his home state against Bush.

[Howlin]

QUESTION: If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between John Edwards, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?

	BUSH	EDWARDS	UNDECIDED
ALL	57%	39%	4%
MEN	62%	35%	3%
WOMEN	52%	43%	5%
WHITE	63%	34%	3%
BLACK	2%	83%	15%
DEMOCRATS	21%	78%	1%
REPUBLICANS	92%	3%	5%
INDEPENDENTS	58%	36%	6%
GREENSBORO/WS	63%	35%	2%
CHARLOTTE	63%	36%	1%
RALEIGH/DURHAM	49%	46%	5%
NORTHEASTERN	50%	43%	7%
SOUTHEASTERN	51%	43%	6%
WEST	66%	31%	3%

[Torie]

You don't get it. A monkey prepared this map, and gave Bush what he got last time, less any states he carried that are the home state of the Dem candidate 9with one exception, noted below). Thus, all win, except Kerry, who comes from a Gore state, and Lieberman, who is given Florida because he is Jewish I assume, and thus Broward and Palm Beach will go really nuts this time. Dean isn't on the list.

[Azzurri]

Hmmm, Pennsylvania could be the lock on the election if Cheney steps down and Santorum takes his place.

[oceanview]

it won't hold. The people here, 6 in 10 are lost.

[Torie]

Well to be fair to the knuckle dragger, it assumes a highly competitive race. Still, the maps didn't show much thought.

[Howlin]

QUESTION: If the 2004 election for North Carolina's U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote to reelect John Edwards, would consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Edwards?

	REELECT	CONSIDER	REPLACE	NOT SURE
ALL	32%	33%	35%	-
MEN	28%	31%	41%	-
WOMEN	36%	35%	29%	-
WHITE	26%	37%	37%	-
BLACK	77%	4%	1%	18%
DEMOCRATS	66%	25%	9%	-
REPUBLICANS	3%	39%	58%	-
INDEPENDENTS	27%	35%	38%	-
GREENSBORO/WS	28%	33%	39%	-
CHARLOTTE	29%	34%	37%	-
RALEIGH/DURHAM	39%	32%	29%	-
NORTHEASTERN	40%	32%	28%	-
SOUTHEASTERN	38%	32%	30%	-
WEST	18%	35%	47%	-