[LS]

It's going to be a blowout. This election will not be close, and Sabato is badly off on this.

[SowellRocks]

This analysis is ridiculous. The vast majority of the American public are mostly concerned with two things at this point in our history: 1) national security and 2) economic security. The Republicans hold a substantial credibility gap over the Democrats on these issues. That is why 2004 will be a blowout.

All of the social issues are mere window dressing, and only hard core, ideological voters will let these type of issues determine their votes.

[ArneFufkin]

Blue states like Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Washington could easily go to Bush in 2004. I agree with your assessment, a blowout is imminent. The Democrats know that 2004 is going to be a bloodletting, hence their "take no prisoners" campaign to protect their judicial power base.

Americans will not accept the premise that George W. Bush wants to throw Grammie into a snowbank and drag blackfolk around in chains. Bush will regain the "Reagan Democrats" of the Rustbelt, suburbs and retirement communities he didn't have in 2000.

[jpl]

All this speculation this early in the game is a pointless waste of time. If the economy has made a solid recovery by this time next year and we can avoid another major terrorist attack on our soil, I agree with you that it'll be a landslide. If the economy is still kind of mushy the way it is now, Sabato's analysis will probably be darn accurate. If the economy goes completely in the tank, Bush will suffer the same fate as his father. But we're still a full year away from any meaningful analysis.

[ggekko]

"It's going to be a blowout..."

I agree. The Democrats are going through a very odd-looking nervous breakdown which some have attributed to being completely out of power. They are not handling their wilderness phase very well.

I predict that the Democrats will nominate John Kerry because of the "arousal gap" factor and Howard Dean's imminent self-destruction. Gephardt would be their strongest candidate but he won't be nominated because he is not "sexy" enough. Kerry will come across as an arrogant, pompous ass in those parts of the country outside the east coast.

It will be a blowout.

Despite the pejorative tone of the terms "tolerant" and "traditional" I still believe it is a useful distinction. We are on the verge of a cultural civil war in this country. The worldviews that drive the "traditionalists" and the "tolerants" are simply and fundamentally incompatible. Abobortion, homosexuality and affirmative action are simply the flashpoints in this ongoing struggle.

[KC_Conspirator]

It's going to be a blowout. This election will not be close, and Sabato is badly off on this.

I think so too. Sabato's assumptions are that 2004 will reflect 2000. I thought he was smarter than this? I understand the race will tighten, but hell, Bush is leading John Kerry in the MA polls for crying out loud!