The Old College Try (2004 Election Preview)

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 6/23/03 | Larry J. Sabato

[NYC Republican]

Very interesting reading on the 2004 Presidential election... Note- he also has Senate predictions...

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Yes, very interesting!

More need to know about it!

Bush needs votes to make 2004 into a landslide!

The Military action in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere needs to go well and the economy needs to come back strongly.

If not , his reelection would likely fail.

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[JLS]

....have separated the American states into Blue "Tolerant America" and Red "Traditional America".

Well above is the show stopper. Those of us who voted for Bush or those of us from states that went Bush in 2000 are by implication "Intolerant." Why would you seriously consider the views of someone with this kind of bias.

[caltrop]

Gun Rights continues to be the issue that, barring an economic disaster, makes the difference.

[aardvark1]

Certainly biased. "Tolerant" and "traditional" are not opposites by definition, but this author puts them at odds.

[LS]

It's going to be a blowout. This election will not be close, and Sabato is badly off on this.

[LS]

BTW, if you merely look at his map, you know Sabato is off: Bush barely lost NM, Oregon, Iowa, and WI, which alone start to move him into "blowout" territory. I think the total margin for all four was under 30,000. I know WI and NM were less than 17,000 votes total. Already, though, polls have Bush leading in Maryland, NY, and other states he lost.

[spectacularbid2003]

Reminiscent of ABC, CBS, NBC & CNN...skewed question...

His deletion of year 2000 results makes you wonder if his "Crystal Ball" is "Forked Tongue."

[SowellRocks]

This analysis is ridiculous. The vast majority of the American public are mostly concerned with two things at this point in our history: 1) national security and 2) economic security. The Republicans hold a substantial credibility gap over the Democrats on these issues. That is why 2004 will be a blowout.

All of the social issues are mere window dressing, and only hard core, ideological voters will let these type of issues determine their votes.

[ArneFufkin]

Blue states like Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Washington could easily go to Bush in 2004. I agree with your assessment, a blowout is imminent. The Democrats know that 2004 is going to be a bloodletting, hence their "take no prisoners" campaign to protect their judicial power base.

Americans will not accept the premise that George W. Bush wants to throw Grammie into a snowbank and drag blackfolk around in chains. Bush will regain the "Reagan Democrats" of the Rustbelt, suburbs and retirement communities he didn't have in 2000.

[So Cal Rocket]

So let me get this straight... this guy's opinion is:

"Unless it's a landslide, it's going to be close".

He's certainly not going out on a limb here, is he?

[ArneFufkin]

Substitute "Missouri" for "Maryland". Maryland is hopeless.

[NYC Republican]

Americans will not accept the premise that George W. Bush wants to throw Grammie into a snowbank

I'd LOVE it if Bush was able to throw "grammies" into the snow banks, serves them Hollywood idiots right! (;-)

[Dan from Michigan]

Blue "Tolerant America"

Tolerant? BS. Stay the #%^# out of my gun cabinent.

[ArneFufkin]

lol. It's all "hip-hop" crap anyway.

[Dan from Michigan]

I think Jersey is almost hopeless. Missouri went to Bush last time and I think will go again(unless it's Gephardt).

Washington(Oregon's more winnable) I think is out of reach unless a Green candidate is strong. Nader/Gore combined won by 13% there.

I studied Michigan here in depth
The one major factor is the economy. If it improves, he's got it. If he takes a couple more dips, he's toast.

[jpl]

All this speculation this early in the game is a pointless waste of time. If the economy has made a solid recovery by this time next year and we can avoid another major terrorist attack on our soil, I agree with you that it'll be a landslide. If the economy is still kind of mushy the way it is now, Sabato's analysis will probably be darn accurate. If the economy goes completely in the tank, Bush will suffer the same fate as his father. But we're still a full year away from any meaningful analysis.

[Greenpees]

""The Blue states are tolerant/liberal on hot-button social issues such as abortion, gun control, gay rights, and the like, while the Red states are traditional/conservative on these matters""

I think National Security may be a bit more influential than the author gives notice to. Social issues are not always election winners. We haven't had another 9/11..and people know that Bush/Ashcroft/Ridge are responsible for keeping terrorists at bay.

The economy will see slow, but persistent growth. Bush will remain for another 4 years.

[Search4Truth]

Search4Truth Jr. will be voting with his dad for the first time in the Presidential election. I'm so proud.

[NYC Republican]

Search4Truth Jr. will be voting with his dad for the first time in the Presidential election. I'm so proud.

Hopefully he'll pull the trigger for the GOP, otherwise, he'll negate your vote!