US Q1'03 GDP rev to +1.4 pct

Biz.Yahoo/Reuters ^ | June 26, 2003

[Starwind]

US Q1'03 GDP rev to +1.4 pct
Thursday June 26, 8:31 am ET

   WASHINGTON, June 26 (Reuters) - Commerce Department
seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product data on a
chain-weighted basis.
Following are annualized percent changes from prior quarters,
in 1996 chain dollars.
.                        Q1-F   Q1-P    Q4   2002
GDP                      1.4    1.9    1.4    2.4
Final Sales of                                 
 Dom. Product            2.3    2.4    1.1    1.8
Final Sales to                                 
 Dom. Buyers             1.4    1.4    2.6    2.4
GDP price index          2.4    2.5    1.8    1.1
PCE price index          2.7    2.7    1.8    1.4
Core PCE price index     0.8    0.8    1.5    1.7
Implicit Deflator        2.4    2.5    1.8    1.1
Consumer Spending        2.0    2.0    1.7    3.1
Durable Goods        -2.0   -1.8   -8.2    7.3
NonDurable Goods      6.1    6.4    5.1    3.2
Services              0.9    0.7    2.2    2.2
Business Investment     -4.4   -4.8    2.3   -5.7
 Structures             -2.9    0.4   -9.9  -16.4
 Equipment/software     -4.8   -6.3    6.2   -1.7
Housing Investment      10.1   11.0    9.4    3.9
Exports                 -1.3   -1.4   -5.8   -1.6
Imports                 -6.2   -7.1    7.4    3.7
Government Purchases     0.4    0.3    4.6    4.4
 Federal                 0.7    0.9   11.0    7.5
 State and Local         0.2   -0.1    1.2    2.8
A-Advance (1st estimate). P-Preliminary (2nd). F-final (3rd.)
Seasonally adjusted annual rates, in blns of '96 chain dlrs:
.                           Q1-F     Q1-P       Q4     2002
GDP                        9,552.0  9,562.9  9,518.2  9,439.9
Final Sales of                                             
 Dom.Product               9,536.2  9,539.1  9,483.1  9,424.4
Final Sales of                                             
 Dom. Buyers              10,004.7 10,004.6  9,970.1  9,874.1
Consumer Spending          6,670.9  6,671.6  6,637.9  6,576.0
Durable Goods           1,005.4  1,006.0  1,010.6    999.9
NonDurable Goods        1,978.9  1,980.3  1,950.0  1,929.5
Services                3,714.9  3,713.8  3,707.0  3,675.6
Business Investment        1,172.1  1,170.8  1,185.3  1,183.4
Structures                   211.0    212.7    212.6    226.4
 Equipment/software          979.9    976.0    992.1    971.1
Housing Investment           405.5    406.4    395.9    388.2
Business Inventory Change      4.8     13.2     25.8      5.2
Farm                           1.0      1.4     -0.8      1.1
Net Exports Goods/Svcs      -510.3   -506.9   -532.2   -488.5
Exports                    1,058.1  1,057.9  1,061.6  1,058.8
Imports                    1,568.4  1,564.8  1,593.8  1,547.4
Govt. Purchases            1,736.7  1,736.2  1,735.0  1,712.8
 Federal                     632.5    632.8    631.4    613.3
 State and Local           1,104.6  1,103.8  1,104.0  1,099.7
A-Advance (1st estimate). P-Preliminary (2nd). F-final (3rd).
 FORECASTS: 
 Reuters survey of U.S. economists' forecast for Final Q1
GDP:
 +1.8 pct for GDP 
 +2.5 pct for Implicit Deflator 
 +2.1 pct for Final Sales
 HISTORICALS/NOTES:
 US Q1 CORE PCE PRICE INDEX SMALLEST RISE SINCE Q3'01 (+0.7
PCT)
 The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is
an inflation gauge for consumer purchases that is closely
watched by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The core PCE price index
excludes the volatile food and energy components.

[Starwind]

The full BEA report is at GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2003 (FINAL) CORPORATE PROFITS: FIRST QUARTER 2003 (REVISED)

[Starwind]

Fyi...

[KevinDavis]

Naw the figures has been rigged..

[The_Victor]

So that would be revised down from 1.9 to 1.4.

[Starwind]

So that would be revised down from 1.9 to 1.4.

Yes. Or more precisely, back down to the original "anemic 1.4%" when it was first released. Then the "preliminary" report had revised it up to 1.9 (which everyone took as proof the economy was on the mend).

But now that it's back down, it's old news, and the decline of UI claims is now proof the economy is on the mend (i.e. Jobless claims is back to being a leading indicator - at least until it moves in the wrong direction at which time it'll become a lagging indicator again).

[Starwind]

I correct myself:

Yes. Or more precisely, back down to the original "anemic 1.4% 1.6%" when it was first released.

The advanced number was 1.6%, so the final number is worse that as 1st reported. See US Q1'03 GDP rev to +1.9 pct

[Tauzero]

Seems to me the real number of concern should be constant dollar per capita GDP.

If GDP grows at a 1.4% annualized rate, and population grows by more than a 1.4% annualized rate, aren't people on average getting poorer?

Conversely, a slow growth of GDP could be quite acceptable if the population were stable.

Any idea what those numbers look like?

[Starwind]

Seems to me the real number of concern should be constant dollar per capita GDP.

Excellent point!

We can get population figures from the UI, Consumer Wage & Income and Consumer Expense & Outlay reports. I don't know if the BEA produces a Percapita GDP number, but I'll look. May take a day or better.

[Starwind]

Here's a start - need to compute Pct change in GDP ourselves. If you go the link, you can play with the data but you'll need a Java enabled browser (it's a BEA website).

BEA, NIPA - Table 8.7. Selected Per Capita Product and Income Series in Current and Chained Dollars

Line		2000    I	2000    II	2000    III	2000    IV	2001    I	2001    II	2001    III	2001    IV	2002    I	2002    II	2002    III	2002    IV	2003    I
	Current dollars:
1	Gross domestic product	34,330	34,855	34,958	35,147	35,336	35,332	35,412	35,512	35,996	36,147	36,509	36,706	36,970
2	Gross national product	34,405	34,946	35,021	35,250	35,371	35,441	35,452	35,636	36,002	36,077	36,471	36,674	36,935
3	Personal income	29,215	29,636	30,048	30,284	30,508	30,502	30,531	30,434	30,727	31,052	31,132	31,242	31,458
4	Disposable personal income	24,745	25,118	25,447	25,635	25,785	25,805	26,387	25,853	26,759	27,144	27,313	27,463	27,732
5	Personal consumption expenditures	23,311	23,562	23,847	24,039	24,330	24,468	24,491	24,834	25,040	25,271	25,579	25,740	25,985
6	Durable goods	2,876	2,837	2,870	2,815	2,878	2,884	2,890	3,087	2,998	2,985	3,120	3,029	2,979
7	Nondurable goods	6,855	6,974	7,041	7,101	7,158	7,189	7,169	7,151	7,278	7,344	7,356	7,453	7,633
8	Services	13,579	13,751	13,936	14,123	14,293	14,396	14,432	14,596	14,765	14,942	15,102	15,258	15,373
	Chained (1996) dollars:
9	Gross domestic product	32,366	32,672	32,635	32,640	32,523	32,320	32,216	32,350	32,681	32,718	32,962	32,995	33,039
10	Gross national product	32,446	32,769	32,704	32,747	32,565	32,429	32,263	32,471	32,696	32,663	32,936	32,974	33,014
11	Disposable personal income	23,234	23,451	23,637	23,680	23,624	23,537	24,071	23,537	24,296	24,479	24,527	24,551	24,625
12	Personal consumption expenditures	21,887	21,998	22,150	22,206	22,291	22,317	22,342	22,609	22,735	22,790	22,969	23,010	23,074
13	Durable goods	3,129	3,093	3,145	3,095	3,173	3,208	3,236	3,470	3,406	3,416	3,588	3,503	3,477
14	Nondurable goods	6,438	6,501	6,517	6,543	6,567	6,547	6,552	6,593	6,706	6,691	6,692	6,760	6,845
15	Services	12,373	12,451	12,538	12,608	12,602	12,619	12,616	12,650	12,712	12,771	12,812	12,850	12,849
16	Population (mid-period, thousands)	281,076	281,758	282,476	283,202	283,794	284,442	285,154	285,898	286,507	287,072	287,770	288,475	289,109

[dufekin]

Sure shows the Clinton recession (June 2000-January 2002). And we've been recovering ever since. 0.53% annualized real growth in product per capita this quarter which ended 03/31, and had all that awful weather. Economy's doing fine.

Previous quarters
2000: ????, 3.836%, -.452%, .061%
2001: -1.426%, -2.473%, -1.281%, 1.674%
2002: 4.156%, .454%, 3.017%, .401%
2003: .534%

Annual growth
2000: .847%
2001: -.888%
2002: 1.994%

[Starwind]

Quibling with your math a bit, my computations are as follows:

Annualized Pct '96-Chained-$ percapita GDP = (Qcur - Qpre) / Qpre * 4 qtr/yr * 100

And plugging in data from line 9 of the above table, I get:

Q1C03   .5334%
Q4C02   .4005%
Q3C02   .7458%
Q2C02   .1132%
Q1C02   .4093%
Q4C01  1.664%
Q3C01 -1.287%
Q2C01 -2.497%
Q1C01 -1.434%
Q4C00   .0613%
Q3C00 - .4530%
Q2C00  3.782%

I want to further check what the "population" includes and the 1996 Constant Chained dollars.

[Starwind]

And now archiving 1995-1999 Table 8.7. Selected Per Capita Product and Income Series in Current and Chained Dollars data:

Line		1995    I	1995    II	1995    III	1995    IV	1996    I	1996    II	1996    III	1996    IV	1997    I	1997    II	1997    III	1997    IV	1998    I	1998    II	1998    III	1998    IV	1999    I	1999    II	1999    III	1999    IV
	Current dollars:
1	Gross domestic product	27,522	27,616	27,869	28,139	28,441	28,934	29,126	29,482	29,926	30,416	30,727	30,946	31,405	31,576	31,913	32,419	32,722	32,922	33,339	33,947
2	Gross national product	27,602	27,711	27,911	28,227	28,541	28,999	29,169	29,542	29,955	30,460	30,752	30,953	31,430	31,587	31,861	32,386	32,793	33,009	33,400	34,053
3	Personal income	23,043	23,181	23,344	23,562	23,877	24,200	24,450	24,667	25,021	25,271	25,555	25,907	26,408	26,804	27,114	27,336	27,551	27,719	27,940	28,396
4	Disposable personal income	20,207	20,245	20,414	20,574	20,780	20,956	21,198	21,349	21,576	21,763	21,971	22,234	22,644	22,972	23,191	23,336	23,500	23,620	23,763	24,109
5	Personal consumption expenditures	18,362	18,594	18,767	18,905	19,125	19,399	19,508	19,717	20,002	20,097	20,419	20,588	20,821	21,130	21,338	21,611	21,868	22,239	22,542	22,882
6	Durable goods	2,180	2,198	2,236	2,242	2,261	2,310	2,286	2,296	2,339	2,294	2,389	2,403	2,427	2,503	2,504	2,617	2,622	2,692	2,738	2,782
7	Nondurable goods	5,566	5,612	5,634	5,675	5,739	5,834	5,851	5,941	5,993	5,978	6,054	6,055	6,100	6,162	6,214	6,294	6,381	6,513	6,589	6,748
8	Services	10,615	10,783	10,897	10,987	11,125	11,255	11,371	11,480	11,670	11,826	11,976	12,130	12,293	12,466	12,621	12,700	12,864	13,035	13,216	13,352
	Chained (1996) dollars:
9	Gross domestic product	28,243	28,221	28,351	28,485	28,616	29,009	29,063	29,297	29,529	29,873	30,089	30,195	30,563	30,653	30,870	31,277	31,428	31,500	31,802	32,248
10	Gross national product	28,324	28,316	28,392	28,572	28,715	29,074	29,106	29,358	29,561	29,923	30,120	30,210	30,596	30,674	30,831	31,256	31,508	31,594	31,871	32,359
11	Disposable personal income	20,801	20,720	20,797	20,874	20,957	21,003	21,160	21,165	21,261	21,385	21,522	21,708	22,075	22,341	22,478	22,540	22,630	22,618	22,634	22,828
12	Personal consumption expenditures	18,901	19,030	19,119	19,180	19,288	19,442	19,473	19,547	19,710	19,748	20,002	20,100	20,298	20,550	20,682	20,873	21,057	21,296	21,471	21,666
13	Durable goods	2,151	2,172	2,215	2,226	2,243	2,306	2,291	2,311	2,363	2,338	2,455	2,485	2,521	2,613	2,632	2,769	2,798	2,887	2,949	3,012
14	Nondurable goods	5,711	5,737	5,743	5,773	5,792	5,836	5,850	5,888	5,914	5,908	5,975	5,964	6,029	6,101	6,130	6,190	6,247	6,306	6,326	6,421
15	Services	11,040	11,123	11,162	11,182	11,253	11,299	11,332	11,348	11,433	11,500	11,574	11,654	11,751	11,844	11,928	11,935	12,032	12,132	12,229	12,274
16	Population (mid-period, thousands)	265,154	265,879	266,704	267,573	268,261	268,984	269,826	270,721	271,472	272,216	273,079	273,980	274,725	275,437	276,269	277,134	277,881	278,589	279,449	280,328

[Starwind]

Using sdame formula:

Annualized Pct '96-Chained-$ percapita GDP = (Qcur - Qpre) / Qpre * 4 qtr/yr * 100

And plugging in data from line 9 for 1996-1999, I get:

Q1C03   .5334%

Q4C02   .4005%
Q3C02   .7458%
Q2C02   .1132%
Q1C02   .4093%

Q4C01  1.664%
Q3C01 -1.287%
Q2C01 -2.497%
Q1C01 -1.434%

Q4C00   .0613%
Q3C00 - .4530%
Q2C00  3.782%
Q1C00  1.464%

Q4C99  1.402%
Q3C99   .9587%
Q2C99   .9163%
Q1C99  1.931%

Q4C98  5.274%
Q3C98  2.832%
Q2C98  1.178%
Q1C98  4.875%

Q4C97  1.409%
Q3C97  2.892%
Q2C97  4.660%
Q1C97  3.167%

Q4C96  3.221%
Q3C96   .7446%
Q2C96  5.493%
Q1C96  1.840%

[Starwind]

I need to correct 3 data points in my calculations:

Q3C02   .7458% should be 2.983%
Q4C99  1.402%  should be 5.610%
Q3C99   .9587% should be 3.835%

[Starwind]

So, I've plotted the data and (not surprisingly) it looks too consistent. The %change GDP is tracked almost identically by the %change per capita GDP.

We take a census every 10 years, so I began to wonder how they get a quarterly population number. It seems to be "estimated", but the change in estimated population ranges between 565,000 to - 901,000, and oddly enough, the population increases are smallest when the GDP growth is smallest. Who woulda thunk it?

It's as if the population (sensing the economy dipping ahead of the BEA analysis) suddenly up and migrates - say south of the border, perhaps - and the resulting %change in percapita GDP turns out not as large as one might have expected.

I may post a chart in a day or two to illustrate.

[Tauzero]

Are Census Bureau pop estimates any different?

[Starwind]

Are Census Bureau pop estimates any different?

Census Bureau estimates are monthly and in the same ball park, but numerically different enough as to pretty much preclude there having been the source of BEA's pop ests.

The BEA may have further massaged the CB estimates, but as is usually the case, its a major research project just to find out what they've done and why. I'm convinced they really don't want the methods behind their assumptions known.

I'm going to try to recompute using the workforce numbers which the BEA gets from employer reports and the unemployment surveys and see what that looks like. Won't be strict percapita, but given that GDP is a function of workers and not just residents, it may be indicative.