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They can't expect to hit all their targets anyway, but even with NMD going up they have an easy solution to build more missiles. All they really require is to maintain a minimal deterrent as anything beyond that won't really give them bang for their buck. What they want is domination of their immediate periphery and enough muscle to make any external power think hard about entering their perimeter. It's not like they'll be able to invade Taiwan anytime soon, if ever, but they already have enough teeth to make life miserable for a Taiwan that declared official independence, and that's guaranteed to grow as the years go by.

The ultimate reason the status quo will be maintained is that either side would risk imposing unattainable objectives on itself by acting on its impulses. Whatever else happens, Taiwan will always be 100 miles off the coast of mainland China. On the one hand this means that a Chinese invasion will be exceedingly difficult even with air and naval supremacy and no US involvement. On the other hand it means that Taiwan will never escape the range of China's short-range missiles and long-range coastal artillery, which the Chicoms can deploy in massive numbers. So there you have the equilibrium: China won't dare attack unless Taiwan declares independence, but Taiwan won't dare declare independence since China will attack. The cost-benefit analysis for both sides can hardly be more crystal-clear.