I like your analysis. The simplest political axiom is that 1/3 of everybody are democrats, 1/3 are republicans and the remainder are the up-for-grabs voters. So your message, as a candidate has to appeal to your base and to more than 50% of the middle voters. What I think is happening at this time, reflected in this article, is the nine dwarfs are having to out-liberal each other to try to appeal to their base. Their problem is their message is way outside what the middle is looking for. And then actions like the Wellstone rally just emphasize the differences even more to the middle.
Another example was running an ad trying to make George Bush complicit in the dragging death of James Byrd. Your average voter did not believe Bush, in any way, supported that action and they knew in Texas those men were locked away. So as you said, that average voter took that charge personally and rejected it.
Your average voter did not believe Bush, in any way, supported that action and they knew in Texas those men were locked away. Actually Bush did better, when middle of the road voters heard about Byrd and how Bush was opposed to hate crime laws, they were confused, untill they found out that instead, one of the men, recieved the death penalty, something democrats would not have done.
Irony alert, the NAACP was unsure how to react to this guy getting the death penalty, since they are opposed to it, there is still disagreements on what they will do when the actual execution will happen, since protesting this guy getting executed could be percieved as racism, and anti-death penalty advocates will loath protesting side by side with racist white supremacists.