[liberallarry]

OK, cutting to the chase, the reason I think poorly of intellectuals attempting to forecast the future is that other, opposing intellectuals will attempt to anticipate your moves, resulting in a dangerous chess game

That's it. That's the game and how it's played. Nothing wrong with your strategy - and that's what it is: a strategy - but it doesn't stop the game. It continues. It's the only one in town.

[js1138]

But the outcomes of games are unpredictable. I would love to hear about a think tank whose 20 and 50 year forecasts are consistently correct. You are saying foxes are smarter and therefore better than hedgehogs. I say capitalism, with all its chaos and waste is a hedgehog, and it is both better and more durable that anything that could be planned by intellectuals. It isn't so much that capitalists are dumb or have lower IQs than intellectuals, it's that they do not attempt to plan for all of society. Intellectuals have contempt for them because they do not "see the big picture." I maintain that no one sees the big picture.

[Doctor Stochastic]

And the reason that the ordinary people have trouble forecasting the future is that other, opposing ordinary people will try to thwart them. It's called politics.