[liberallarry]

The opinions of smart people are no better than those of lesser intellect when it come to forecasting the consequenses of political or military action.

Wrong. They are better. Much, much better. Just not good enough to forecast 20, or 10, or even 5 years into the future with high probability in many situations.

You are obsessed with the notion that things are predictible

This is completely off the wall, not even remotely related to anything I've posted, and said only because you don't like Szilard's views and can't find any other way to criticize them.

Keep in mind that your criticism's apply equally to the decisions which were actually made, and to those who made them. In fact, we are all called upon to make these kinds of decisions all the time - in our daily as well as national lives; Shall I invest for the long term? Should I take on a big mortgage? Shall I buy health insurance? Should I save for the kids' education? etc., etc., etc.

[MEG33]

Gee ,Larry,are you a scientist?....;)

[js1138]

OK, cutting to the chase, the reason I think poorly of intellectuals attempting to forecast the future is that other, opposing intellectuals will attempt to anticipate your moves, resulting in a dangerous chess game. the best way to minimise danger is to stake out a set of principles worth fighting and dying for, and to make it clear that you will destroy anyone who tries to take away your way of life. Most of the bad decisions made by America are the result of game playing and not sticking to principles.