[Eala]

My hope is, not a single US shadow, let alone CIA involvement. You'd think we could learn from our previous mistakes.

I agree. It was American involvement in installing and supporting Reza Shah that was probably the main factor in his undoing. The mullahs had been quite unsuccessful in their opposition to him at least from the early 60s. It was the socialist students, the Tudeh party backed by the Soviet Union, that got the traction that led to the revolution (which the mullahs then hijacked).

The only way America can become involved is if we are invited in -- much as we once asked for help from the French. This has to be their revolution.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Besides, the CIA's track record hasn't been very good lately.

[norton]

Of course "American involvement" also came into play in bringing the Shah down; neither you nor I know for sure how it would have played out had we not enabled Khoumeni's unresisted return.

What we should be planning for is a blitz into the Iran/Iraq border area where it seems likely that Saddam, his allies, his weapons, and/or terrorists have found haven. Followed by a promise to assist any near-secular government that Iran might be able to wrest from this apparent melt down.

As to a "CIA inspired fizzle...":
If there is any popular support for regime change in Iran (can't spell tehran) this is precisely the time to look for a legitimate internally inspired attempt to force the issue. Remember that Iran also had a large number of well educated people and a fairly progressive life style before the fundamentalists came to roost.

There also happens to be a large force of armed people just across the border who have quite recently shown they are willing and able to take action.

In the event that the fundamentalists begin to lose , if any major elements of government take the reformists side, it would only take a polite invitation to close the deal.

[Sci Fi Guy]

The mullahs had been quite unsuccessful in their opposition to him at least from the early 60s. It was the socialist students, the Tudeh party backed by the Soviet Union, that got the traction that led to the revolution (which the mullahs then hijacked).

Actually the CIA had some of the Mullahs on the payroll. It was Jimmy Carter, who decided to stop supporting the Shah which allowed his overthrow. Carter was upset that the shah had some political prisoners, so he allowed him to be replaced by a gov't with ten times as many political prisoners.

Kinda poetic how Carter's betrayal of an ally led to his own defeat a few years later.