Candidates hear loud knock of opportunity

SF Chronicle ^ | 6/12/03 | Carla Marinucci and John Wildermuth

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Candidates hear loud knock of opportunity

RECALL: Electoral free-for-all could choose next governor

Carla Marinucci and John Wildermuth, Chronicle Political Writers

Thursday, June 12, 2003

Want to govern the world's sixth largest economy?

Join the parade.

Even though the statewide effort to recall Gov. Gray Davis hasn't yet gathered the required 900,000 valid signatures to qualify for the ballot, the buzz is on in California political circles.

If it happens, the green flag will start the engines of a political demolition derby never before seen in the state.

"It's the wild, wild West," said GOP consultant Sean Walsh. "If you're a political junkie, and you liked the last presidential election, you're going to love this gubernatorial election. Anything can happen."

To enter what's predicted to be a short, brutal race, all you need is a bargain-basement $3,500 filing fee or 10,000 signatures. From the time the recall petitions are validated, would-be candidates have just a few weeks to pay their fee or submit their signatures in order to get their names on the ballot.

If the recall ends up in a special election, a low turnout is likely, and political insiders say that as few as 20 percent of the votes cast could elect the next governor of California.

"This would not be a regular election in any way, shape or form. It's winner-take-all, and everyone and his brother can get in," said GOP pollster Steve Kinney. His advice: "Anyone who has an inkling of ever running for governor should (run), because this is going to be the best chance. They will have nothing to lose and everything to gain."

EAGER TO GET IN THE RACE

Already, they're lining up.

GOP Rep. Darrell Issa of Vista (San Diego County) has spent $645,000 to finance the recall movement and declared himself a candidate for governor.

Peter Camejo, an investment banker and a 2002 Green Party candidate for governor, also plans to put his name on the ballot. Camejo said on Wednesday the possibility of a recall election presents "the real chance of a dream" for third-party candidates like himself.

Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger also appears ready to run. Even as he prepared for the release of "Terminator 3" in early July, Schwarzenegger this week delivered a speech to a Southern California taxpayers' group, joking: "This is really embarrassing. I just forgot our state governor's name -- but I know that you will help me recall him."

George Gorton, a GOP political consultant advising the actor, says no decision has been made. But "Arnold has said over and over that he's interested in running if he can be the best person to solve California's problems," said Gorton.

SIMON 'LOOKING INTO IT'

Republican businessman Bill Simon, who was outspent by Davis 3-to-1 in last November's election for governor and lost by 5 percentage points, said he is "definitely looking at it -- no question."

"I've been swamped with phone calls from people who say, 'You were right. Would you think about running?' " Simon told The Chronicle on Wednesday. "It's something I'm definitely considering."

And there are lesser-knowns, like Republican Danney Ball, a retired publisher from Hemet (Riverside County), who has declared himself a candidate for the U.S. Senate but says he'll run for governor in a recall election.

"There could be hundreds of people coming out the woodwork," predicts Ball, who got 13,300 votes for governor in the 2002 GOP primary election. "But I'd love to be on there, because I think the name recognition alone would be good."

Meanwhile, the political gossip mill is working overtime to handle all the other "what ifs."

Among the names being tossed into the mix:

-- On the Democratic side, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, former White House chief of staff Leon Panetta, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, Attorney General Bill Lockyer,

Treasurer Phil Angelides, Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, California Senate Pro Tem John Burton and Sharon Davis, the governor's wife.

-- On the GOP side: Issa, Schwarzenegger, state Sen. Tom McClintock of Ventura County's Thousand Oaks, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan and former Secretary of State Bill Jones, the latter two having lost to Simon in the 2002 GOP gubernatorial primary.

That doesn't count the possible horde of third-party candidates, like Camejo -- who received 5.3 percent of the statewide vote in the 2002 gubernatorial race and beat Simon in San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley and Emeryville.

"This has never happened before in the history of California, where you have an election . . . there will be 20, 30, 40 people on the ballot," Camejo said. "It creates a peculiar circumstance where a Green or an independent could win."

The political peculiarities of an election that could unseat Democrat Davis in the same year he took office for his second term has even veteran political analysts straining for words to describe the possible effects.

"This will be the closest thing to absolute political anarchy that any of us will see in our lifetimes," predicted GOP political consultant Dan Schnur. "There's no precedent for any of this."

GOP political consultant Wayne Johnson likened it to a demolition derby in which "you'll want to hit someone and damage them. But if you do, you take damage, too."

Democratic political consultant Chris Lehane said that, should a recall election come to pass, Californians must prepare for "a political Circus Maximus" in which an unknown or untested candidate could emerge the victor.

For Democrats, a critical question becomes: Do they even back a candidate on the ballot, giving voters the option of recalling Davis and choosing a different Democrat?

Schnur said the forces of change may be gathering, but some essential things won't change if it comes to running a political campaign.

"The party that does the better job of disciplining itself will elect the next governor," he said. "That means having the self control and management to only run one candidate. If the Republicans run one candidate, and the Democrats run six, the Republicans will almost certainly win."

E-mail the writers at cmarinucci@sfchronicle.com and jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com

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