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To: CathyRyan; Mother Abigail; Dog Gone; Petronski; per loin; riri; flutters; Judith Anne; ...
Turns out the "Niman" on the Agonist SARS Board is Dr. Henry Niman of Harvard. Yesterday he had this to say about SARS in Toronto:

The latest outbreaks in Canada, as well as an exported case, are all being called "mysterious" and "unlikely" which goes along with the earlier data showing positive PCR data in sub-clinical cases. The PCR data was described as "weird".

It seems that what is most mysterious and weird is Toronto's failure to take a hard loom at what they have, instead of calling very expected results "weird" or "mysterious".

The PCR test is more likely to give false negatives (due to timing of sample collection) than false positives. That is why I thought it was weird that the characterization of 20% positives in patients with symptoms was called weird and cited as evidence that SARS CoV didn't cause SARS.

Now the "mysterious" label is being put on patients who have SARS, but no known contact.

There really is no reason to think that some patients will not develop sub-clinical infections and be infectious.

That is certainly the easiest way to generate a 20% positive PCR result in patients with sub-clinical disease. The explanation that "we haven't seen that" is correct, but only because the observer has not really looked or dismissed the data as "weird".

The data aren't weird and are expected. I suspect that the virus is quite widespread in the Toronto area by now, and occasionally shows up as SARS when hospital patients are exposed.

The only thing "weird" about the Toronto PCR data is the failure to recognize the data for what it is, a measurement of SARS CoV infections, which continue to silently spread as officials attempt to find excuses for "weird" results.

19 posted on 06/11/2003 1:37:18 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: aristeides
Very interesting post.
20 posted on 06/11/2003 1:48:47 PM PDT by Prince Charles
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To: aristeides
Your quotes from Dr. Niman are an outstanding catch. Thanks for more of your great work.

So what does "widespread" mean when Dr. Niman says, "I suspect that the virus is quite widespread in the Toronto area by now.."?

Given the widely suspected seasonal nature of SARS, the exact definition of "widespread" may not matter. All it takes is too be widely disseminated enough to pop up in many places in Toronto, essentially all at once, when the flu & cold season starts.
22 posted on 06/11/2003 2:26:19 PM PDT by EternalHope (Boycott everything French forever.)
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To: aristeides
"The only thing "weird" about the Toronto PCR data is the failure to recognize the data for what it is, a measurement of SARS CoV infections, which continue to silently spread as officials attempt to find excuses for "weird" results."

Talk about a 'slap-down.'

23 posted on 06/11/2003 2:35:00 PM PDT by blam
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