[AntiGuv]

The CNSA and the ESA are already beginning to link up - with the imminent Galileo satellite network - and the RKA is the lynchpin between the two. I think you underestimate the significance of political implications and military capabilities that will push the trio together - and away from NASA - so long as the USA is increasingly viewed as an aspiring global hegemon..

[RightWhale]

That is a valid point. However, there is also a behavioral tendency to want to join up with a winner. If NASA can get an act together it will have the resources to take on all others in space development even if all the others join together against NASA. Russia will sell to anyone, so their loyalty is not in the equation. China wants to build a sense of national pride, which means they will act on their own until they feel comfortable with their own capability, but at that point they might accept an invitation as an equal partner with NASA to gain the quantum leap in capability. Japan will be very pleased to contribute meaningfully to a joint China/America conquest of space. Euroland will remain fiercely independent because they are so culturally advanced and cosmopolitan and cannot chance diluting their highly-evolved sensibilities.